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#11
08-08-2007, 10:02 AM
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Re: 50NL Toss AK?
[ QUOTE ]
BTW, I think bet/folding here is not good. I think we either commit to getting it all in or we fold without putting another dime in. I think we are behind villain's range, so c/f is best. [/ QUOTE ] So why did we call preflop then? 
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#12
08-08-2007, 10:09 AM
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Re: 50NL Toss AK?
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Are those two hards you referring to QQ and KQ? I don't think KQ is really that much of a part of his range, but I agree with your general point. [/ QUOTE ]Yeah, that's what I meant. KQ probably isn't part of his range if he is tight, but I still think it's worth noting since it's one of the hands that would pay off AK on a K high flop. Honestly, though, we don't know a lot about villain's tendencies here, so KQs is not implausible. [ QUOTE ] We are behind AA/KK/QQ and ahead of AQ. [/ QUOTE ]We are also ahead of JJ, FWIW. [ QUOTE ] I agree that this flop is worse than if the from was K62 but I think it would still be unprofitable to call preflop, given the stack sizes, even if the flop was K62. [/ QUOTE ]I think we can call PF because it's a modest investment on our part and the pot size will be such that if we play it well, it will be difficult for KK/QQ not to commit against us when we flop a good TPTK. For instance, the flop comes A62. If villain has KK/QQ we can check and induce him to bet, committing himself to the pot. Even if the turn is checked though, he'll likely have to felt the river because he'll bet getting fantastic odds (2.5:1). The same is true for QQ on a K62 flop, though obviously we'll hate it the times he has AA (though QQ is more likely than AA since we have an ace).
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#13
08-08-2007, 10:11 AM
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Re: 50NL Toss AK?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] BTW, I think bet/folding here is not good. I think we either commit to getting it all in or we fold without putting another dime in. I think we are behind villain's range, so c/f is best. [/ QUOTE ]So why did we call preflop then? [/ QUOTE ]Because I believe there are flops we can commit to against villain's range profitably. I might be mistaken, though.
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#14
08-08-2007, 10:38 AM
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Re: 50NL Toss AK?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Are those two hards you referring to QQ and KQ? I don't think KQ is really that much of a part of his range, but I agree with your general point. [/ QUOTE ]Yeah, that's what I meant. KQ probably isn't part of his range if he is tight, but I still think it's worth noting since it's one of the hands that would pay off AK on a K high flop. Honestly, though, we don't know a lot about villain's tendencies here, so KQs is not implausible. [ QUOTE ] We are behind AA/KK/QQ and ahead of AQ. [/ QUOTE ]We are also ahead of JJ, FWIW. [ QUOTE ] I agree that this flop is worse than if the from was K62 but I think it would still be unprofitable to call preflop, given the stack sizes, even if the flop was K62. [/ QUOTE ]I think we can call PF because it's a modest investment on our part and the pot size will be such that if we play it well, it will be difficult for KK/QQ not to commit against us when we flop a good TPTK. For instance, the flop comes A62. If villain has KK/QQ we can check and induce him to bet, committing himself to the pot. Even if the turn is checked though, he'll likely have to felt the river because he'll bet getting fantastic odds (2.5:1). The same is true for QQ on a K62 flop, though obviously we'll hate it the times he has AA (though QQ is more likely than AA since we have an ace). [/ QUOTE ] I could have swore I put JJ in there. I think I accidentally deleted it in my proofreading. I agree with part of what you are saying but just because villain bets the flop doesn't mean he can't find a fold. People fold in these spots all the time. On top of that it won't come with an A very often. If it comes with a K we are in a much more precarious position.
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#15
08-08-2007, 10:49 AM
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Re: 50NL Toss AK?
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with part of what you are saying but just because villain bets the flop doesn't mean he can't find a fold. People fold in these spots all the time. [/ QUOTE ]True enough, but even if he doesn't and our hand IS the best hand, we'll likely get at least one more bet when we hit our hand (which will occur a third of the time, though not all TPTK hands are good for us) and that seems to be worth calling PF. Don't underestimate the power of commitment, though. I have definitely stacked QQ on a K high flop before if the pot was big enough to allow me to check one street through and still be able to get it all in.
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#16
08-08-2007, 11:15 AM
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Re: 50NL Toss AK?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I agree with part of what you are saying but just because villain bets the flop doesn't mean he can't find a fold. People fold in these spots all the time. [/ QUOTE ]True enough, but even if he doesn't and our hand IS the best hand, we'll likely get at least one more bet when we hit our hand (which will occur a third of the time, though not all TPTK hands are good for us) and that seems to be worth calling PF. Don't underestimate the power of commitment, though. I have definitely stacked QQ on a K high flop before if the pot was big enough to allow me to check one street through and still be able to get it all in. [/ QUOTE ] You may have a point because people tend to hang on to their big preflop hands too long. Even good players do this. It is all coming from the top of my head at this point and I don't have any math to back it up. However, since we are an underdog against his range it is questionable whether we will make enough up by calling the preflop raise. I don't have time to dig into this further since I am "working". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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