25NL This is why I hate AK....

[AllTheCheese]

OP, call preflop. Get in on any Ace (with no Queen) or diamonds. Two pair+ is self explanatory, get in. C/c one street with a King.

[Dennisa]

With the large 3 bet and if you are sure you can rule out AA/KK, then its a short stack math problem.

$14 bet into a $48 pot means you have to win 30% of the time for it to be a wash. Against this range jj/qq/ak you have 38% equity and its a call/shove.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.016 secs 1,299,375 games/sec

Board: 8d 8s 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.001% 17.76% 20.24% 3693 4207.50 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 61.999% 41.76% 20.24% 8682 4207.50 { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }

Take out the AK its 72-28 almost a wash.
Board: 8d 8s 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.677% 27.68% 00.00% 3288 0.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 72.323% 72.32% 00.00% 8592 0.00 { QQ-JJ }



If you add all pairs qq-22 its 69-31
57,420 games 0.005 secs 11,484,000 games/sec

Board: 8d 8s 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.679% 30.51% 00.17% 17517 99.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 69.321% 69.15% 00.17% 39705 99.00 { QQ-22 }

Its not as a clear cut fold as other posters in this thread have stated.

I think villain does have AA/KK in his range and may of set a trap. If villians range is jj+ its 76-24, a fold, but call is not loosing much on equity, about another $3.00 a net loss of 12.50 versus a loss of 9.35 and this is probably the worst case hand range.

I think calling is not horrible in this case.

Dennisa

[Albert Moulton]

Just call the reraise preflop. You have position on the SB, you have a good starting hand with AKs, so call and see the flop with position.

As played, I suspect villain has an overpair like TT-QQ pretty often. Vs that range, you have about 28% equity if you push and get called. The pot odds if you push and get called are just shy of 2:1. So, since you probably have no fold equity if you push for only $5.1 more, folding isn't terrible since you'd want at least 33% equity vs TT-QQ in order to insta-push vs that range. However, if you include AK in his hand range, then your backdoor flush draw helps a little and your equity goes up enough to justify a push. If you think he'd play like this with AQ, then pushing is best. If he'd get this far with AQs, for example, then he'd probably call with AQ for only ~$5 more and be drawing dead to a Q.

But, a push would only be marginally bad even if he only has TT-QQ.

Calling would be terrible because you are only about 12% to spike an A or a K, 20% to pick up a diamond flush draw that probably commits you to chase the flush for the rest of your stack on the next street, and about 68% to get no help on the turn and be out another $9.5 with only $5.1 left in your stack.

To summarize, on the flop, fold = push > call.

[Albert Moulton]

[ QUOTE ]
Its not as a clear cut fold as other posters in this thread have stated.

...

I think calling is not horrible in this case.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that folding isn't automatic. But if you don't fold, then you should push. If you call, you only have ~$5 left and a gigantic pot. How can you then fold to a bet on any turn if you just call the flop? If you're going to play past this flop, I think push is the way to go.

[Jeff76]

FWIW, if we were first to act on the flop I would insta-push this (as I would with QQ, KK, AA, or pretty much any other hand I got there with).

As I said before as it is I think it's a fold, though it's close. Just a small tweak to the stack sizes or pot size and you're committed.

[Dennisa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Its not as a clear cut fold as other posters in this thread have stated.

...

I think calling is not horrible in this case.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that folding isn't automatic. But if you don't fold, then you should push. If you call, you only have ~$5 left and a gigantic pot. How can you then fold to a bet on any turn if you just call the flop? If you're going to play past this flop, I think push is the way to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no fold equity in this pot after villains flop bet. Obviously if I were to call the flop, I call the turn no matter what card comes down. The only benefit is if villain decides to ck/ck and we have invested slightly less into the pot, but if I call I will not fold.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
The only benefit is if villain decides to ck/ck and we have invested slightly less into the pot

[/ QUOTE ]If villain were to check the turn, I'd put the rest in anyway. Who knows, he might have AQ? You don't want to miss value or anything . . . [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Of course, I wouldn't call the flop anyway so it's a moot point.

[WantToLearn]

[ QUOTE ]
OP, call preflop. Get in on any Ace (with no Queen) or diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so what if flop comes AQx? Do we give up then? What about AJx?

[wikemang]

I shove preflop fwiw.