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#1
07-01-2007, 06:10 AM
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Bubble, we got AA, and supershortie is sitting out
This is not a hand I played myself, but was posted on a Danish poker forum.
The player gave no reads and no indication of his own image. On this site, if a sitting-out player is forced all in in the blinds, there is no showdown, he just folds. This is a 6 man $20 SNG, Blinds 150/300,payout 70/30. SB (sitting out) 241 BB 4174 Hero 1585 Hero picks up AA. What to do???? According to my own calculations (and please correct me if I'm wrong): I assume if we fold here, we also fold the following two hands, bringing us heads up, with shortie being automatically eliminated. Fold (stacks 1135 /4865) ICM equity 37.57 Push and lose ICM equity 0 Push and win (stacks 3320 /91/2589) ICM equity 51.59 Disregarding any FE we have by pushing, are we then able to find our needed win% by FoldEV/WinEV= 37.57/51.59=72.8% So as long as our hand ranks to win 72.8% against BB's calling range it's a push? Where did I go wrong? 
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#3
07-01-2007, 06:30 AM
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Re: Bubble, we got AA, and supershortie is sitting out
[ QUOTE ]
Disregarding any FE we have by pushing... Where did I go wrong? [/ QUOTE ] Not hard to see: you do have FE. All the other is irrelevant. I'm not even speaking about the fact your AA is such a favorite you don't mind a call here. And the fact that folding twice guarantees blinds going to the big stack and if he loses the all-in confrontation with shortie it will take longer, costing you more blinds. Etc.
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#4
07-01-2007, 06:52 AM
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Re: Bubble, we got AA, and supershortie is sitting out
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Disregarding any FE we have by pushing... Where did I go wrong? [/ QUOTE ] Not hard to see: you do have FE. All the other is irrelevant. [/ QUOTE ] Ah, then your misunderstanding me. I'm fully aware that we have FE. The "where did I go wrong" part was regarding my ICM-calculations. [ QUOTE ] I'm not even speaking about the fact your AA is such a favorite you don't mind a call here. And the fact that folding twice guarantees blinds going to the big stack and if he loses the all-in confrontation with shortie it will take longer, costing you more blinds. Etc. [/ QUOTE ] No, as I stated if shortie is sitting out, he'll automatically lose an all in when in the blinds. In this situation I would push the Aces immediately. I was just a bit surprised about the width of our pushing range (depending on BB call range), if we "only" need to win 72% of showdowns. The FE just adds (tremendously)to the value of a push, but it was the ICM calculations I was wondering about.
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#5
07-01-2007, 09:16 AM
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Re: Bubble, we got AA, and supershortie is sitting out
I meant you "did go wrong" by making calculations here. It's useless imo since even when it's close the FE will swing the balance big time. (Which it seems you all understood.)
I didn't know about the auto-loss, it's not like that on Party I think. Anyway: I'm not motivated to check the calculations. Sorry.
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