Tough turn spot

[Oink]

To be honest I didnt do the math. I just figured I had odds.

We have plenty of counterfeiting outs vs 54, J5, KK, AA. We will also sometimes win when Noles folds and we c/c river.

But I am far from certain calling is ok here. A bit difficult (tedious) to do the math with the guy behind us

[Oink]

Ok. So putting SB on a tight range.

44, 55, 54s, Q4s, Q5s, J4s and J5s.

Then Hero has

33, 44 with 6 combos 0 outs
54s 2 combos 8 outs
Q4ss 1 combo 5 outs
Q4cc 1 combo 3 outs
Q5s 2 combos 5 outs
J4s 2 combos 9 outs
J5s 3 combos 6 outs

(6*0 + 2*8 + 1*5 + 1*3 + 2*5 + 2*9 + 3*6)/17 = 70/17 ~ 4.1


This assumes that we arent sharing outs with noles and that noles doesnt have a better hand than ours.

Still I'd say a conservative guess is about 4 outs on average weighted against their ranges giving hero odds to peel.

Adding the combo hands and the peel gets easier.

So yeah. I peel and make a decision on the river.

[yourface]

I think we need to discount big PPs and flopped monsters almost completely

almost all aggressive players, even LAGtards, at the 10/20 level don't make these kind of mistakes in multiway pots

[JerBear77]

call and fold the river UI.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
Put me in call and fold turn UI. If Noles folds I can see an argument for calling the river.

This is slowplayed set, QJ or improved hands like J5s, 54s. Combo hands or big draws like T9cc and A4cc is in his range as well. Dont discount expert slowplay by QQ-AA completely

Cant fold IMO - unless Noles makes it 3 behind us.

[/ QUOTE ]


I have the nuts on the flop about 100% of the time vs. these two guys.

I called the turn, and noles called the turn.

RIver was a 2 of bricks, black guy checks, I check, noles checks.

hip wins.

[Municipal Hare]

Hooray!

So what sorts of rivers were you intending to call with noles still behind?

What'd black avatar end up mucking?

[rzk]

what did they turn out to have?

[Absolution]

I would call and it didn't seem close to me given your read of the SB. The flush draw is out there as well as some straight draws. The river will be trickier and I probably would call one from the LAG as Oink suggested.

[shane88888]

SB shows X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Y[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
SB shows X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Y[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]


I think I mess up the flop cards.

The flop was Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Jx 4x.

Turn 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

the guy in the blinds hand J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Noles hand T9s

I think the best play, after thinking about this for a day is call the turn, and fold the river UI if it's 3 ways on the river, call down if noles folds the turn.

It would have sucked though, to river a K, have the sb bet, me call, have noles raise, sb folds, and have to call, knowing he would have AT or T9s about 1000% of the time.