Jermain Taylor vs. Kell Pavlik 9-29

[dankhank]

SIA has taylor at -111 on a 3-way line, and pinny has a draw at +1800. approximately what is SIA's taylor line converted to a 2-way?

[converted]

Glad there is a post about this, nothing like a big time boxing match, imo, more exciting than UFC although I respect MMA a ton.

Taylor to me has thoroughbred talent with questionable technique. Yes, Manny Stewart is improving his technique but it probably won't matter this fight anyway.

I was watching the Countdown show on HBO and I think Taylor and Stewart are overconfident. Stewart said Pavlik hasn't fought anybody, neither has Taylor. If Hopkins was 2 years younger he would have beaten Taylor easily. I don't think those fights were controversial, I think Taylor won, but Taylor didn't win because he was the better fighter, just because he was the younger fighter. Wright was the smaller man and he still beat Taylor, imo.

I think this fight comes down to heart, and I don't know how much Taylor has because his heart has never been tested. Granted Miranda was maybe a bit overhyped, but still Pavlik imposed his will on him and took Miranda's soul and stepped on it.

I will put a small wager on Pavlik because I know Taylor gets all close decisions, e.g. vs. Hopkins and Wright (not a win but a draw was just as good). Remember folks, Lou DiBella is a very powerful man, and that is the most important thing when betting boxing.

For example, Don King > Bob Arum, Felix Trinidad decision over De La Hoya.

I hope we have equal interest in Mosley vs. Cotto, I love Mosley in this one.

[Carlson411]

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Quick fact: No Steward trained fighter has lost after going to Emmanuel's camp in the Poconos to train, where Taylor trained for this. (17-0)

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Really that is a pretty cool stat. I was there last week Emmanuel Steward and about 20 fighters from Knonk were there as well. It was cool because the summer is over so the place was deserted. It was literally my family, 2 others and all the boxers. So we basically ran into Jermain and the others everywhere- gym, dinner, pool etc.

Everyone was pretty chill, the workouts were open to the public so we went down for a few hours and stood next to the ring watching them spar, jump rope and hit the bags. Jermain Taylor autographed the beater he worked out in the last day and gave it to me. Andy Lee, Kermit Cintron, James Cintron, Jon Banks, and Aaron Pryor Jr. were the other auto's I got.

For what it is worth it didn't seem like Jermain was the one preparing for a huge fight this weekend. I only watched them train about 1-2 hours per day so its possible I just missed Jermain with his game face on, but he seemed to be goofing around some while a guy like Andy Lee was being a workout warrior. I'm just staying away from betting this fight now. I was on board for Pavlik but now after meeting him I can't root against Jermain. Great matchup that I don't mind watching as a fan and not having money at risk.

[/ QUOTE ] This is very interesting. Great post. I'm leaning towards decreasing my bet or not betting at all. Berto will also be facing a tough competitor as well. I may not bet all.

[NajdorfDefense]

I like Estrada at a good price as well.

Aaron Pryor jr's dad was a stone-cold pimp. Gotta rewatch those Pryor v Arguello matches again, they were absolute wars.

[dankhank]

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SIA has taylor at -111 on a 3-way line, and pinny has a draw at +1800. approximately what is SIA's taylor line converted to a 2-way?

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-111 is 52.6%, +1800 is 5.25%... so would you add 5.25% to 52.6, to get a line of -137 and probability of 57.85%?

[trixtrix]

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SIA has taylor at -111 on a 3-way line, and pinny has a draw at +1800. approximately what is SIA's taylor line converted to a 2-way?

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-111 is 52.6%, +1800 is 5.25%... so would you add 5.25% to 52.6, to get a line of -137 and probability of 57.85%?

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your money is refunded on the draw, so essentially the fair line is 52.6+ draw%/2

[Tuds75]

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For example, Don King > Bob Arum, Felix Trinidad decision over De La Hoya.


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For one thing Don King > Bob Arum maybe in the early '90s, but at this point Arum was definately top dog promoter-wise. The reason Oscar lost is he decided to fight the final few rounds trying not to lose instead of winning, I still think Oscar won the fight, but all he needed to do was keep doing what he was doing and he would have won. But hi-jack his thread with Oscar/Tito talk from '99.

You mention if the fights go to the cards, Taylor will win because DiBella is a powerful man, well Pavlik's promoter is Bob Arum. In the pecking order of promoters, Arum is ahead of DiBella. If it goes to the judges and it's a come victory either way it won't be on the promoter's pull that gets their fighter the decision. The reason their could be a deputed decision is because Taylor will control the fight with his jab and Pavlik will land the bigger punches. So it will depend on what the judges are scoring.

Tuds

[Tuds75]

You think Manny Steward is a little overconfident about this fight?

Emmanuel Steward says Taylor will knock out Kelly Pavlik when they face off on Saturday in Atlantic City. "It's going to be a tough fight -- for about one round ," Steward said at a Wednesday press conference in New York City. "Jermain Taylor will knock out Kelly Pavlik. I've never had a fighter in better condition for a fight."

Tuds

[converted]

Right now Arum might be number 2 behind Golden Boy. But back in the 90's early 2000's Arum fighters didn't win as many close decisions as they should have. For instance, DLH vs. Mosley, I definitely thought Mosley won the first fight but the second fight was pretty close. I guess what I am trying to say is that if DLH was promoted by Don King for those fights he would have gotten both decisions.

Don't underestimate DiBella, dude held a powerful position at HBO for many years building up his rolodex, how the hell did he get his fighter to win 2 close decisions against a reigning champ of almost 10 years, although I felt Taylor won both fights, and then get his fighter a draw against Wright who clearly outboxed Taylor and arguably fought tougher than even Taylor expected. The 12th round of the first Hopkins fight was scored very suspiciously.

If Taylor jabs the hell out of Pavlik he wins pretty easily I think, but I don't he will because he is not disciplined enough to do it.

[Post-Oak]

Tuds, I like the write up.

Taylor's recent outings have been nothing short of disgraceful. I would never rip a fighter for not looking impressive against Hopkins, who is both a great fighter and a guy who will make anyone look bad. So I won't blame him for fading down the stretch versus a 40 year old.

I thought his fight with Wright could have gone either way, so I have no problem with the draw (many claim Winky won). It was pretty obvious though that Jermain was bigger, stronger, and faster. His lack of technical ability, stamina, and HEART cost him a clear cut decision IMO.

His fight against Ouma is his most damning performance. Ouma is known as a guy who just keeps pressing forward, and who throws a ridiculous number of punches. He's not the biggest puncher though, and he is not a middleweight. I expected Jermain to look good on his way to a KO victory. Instead, Taylor faded down the stretch. He was too tired to fight effectively in the later rounds, and Ouma dominated him. The scorecards were [censored], and if it were a 15 round fight I think he would have lost to Ouma, who is a pretty good light middleweight, but no world beater (and not a middleweight!).

Against the much smaller, light hitting Spinks, he again looked terrible. He could have easily lost that decision.

I could never bet on this guy. Either he doesn't train hard, or he just naturally has no stamina. He gets bullied by welterweights and light middleweights in the late rounds.

As for Pavlik, he is a very good offensive fighter and sets a torrid pace (one that Taylor will never be able to keep up with).

I expected him to get knocked out by Miranda. I had seen Pavlik's fight with Zuniga, in which he was dropped hard by a left hook and I figured Miranda would be able to hit him. Since Miranda has massive power, I figured Pavlik was gonna get exposed as yet another white hope from a non-boxing hotbed. Instead, he completely dominated.

Miranda is a tougher opponent than Spinks or Ouma. Miranda almost stopped Arthur Abraham (who is up there with Taylor and Pavlik) and also had beaten a good super middleweight in Allan Green.

I won't be surprised if a very focused Taylor can outjab Pavlik and win a decision. It is also possible he will be able to knock out Pavlik, since Kelly can be hit and forces the action.

Most likely Pavlik will set a torrid pace, and Taylor will fade badly down the stretch. I expect Pavlik to completely dominate the late stages of this fight. I can't believe I am saying that, but then I can't believe that Taylor had a hard time against Ouma or Spinks.

Taylor has never showed any heart whatsoever, and his stamina is terrible. He can't outwork 40 year olds, light middles, welterweights nor Kelly Pavlik.

The odds are up to +135 on Pavlik on 5Dimes, and I think they will continue to rise as the fight approaches. I will be betting on Pavlik. I can't believe it, but I am.