Superbowl Player Props

[Spellmen]

I have been making most of my money lately on props, but broke even last week after just throwing some picks together late. A couple of them were on the completely wrong side of averages, so I wanted to avoid that by starting this early. Placing some bets today, waiting on some others which may hurt since the lines can move quickly so I may have to hold off on them then.

Here are some early picks I am looking, advice please.

Dallas Clark O50.5 receiving yards (-110) - Just looking at his playoffs games he's had 9receptions for 102 yards against KC, 2 for 41 against balt, and 6 for 137 against NE. The O/U on receptions is 3.5, which I think he will go over, but the line is already at -165. It's hard to factor in his stats from the regular season since he was out and even playing injured most of the time.

Peyton O22.5 completions (-125) - Mainly riding my pick from last week when he threw 28/47. The 15/30 against Balt is a little alarming, but I don't think the Bears secondary is at that level.

Benson O53.5 yards (-120) - He got 24! carries last week, highest so far this season. He didn't exactly produce, but the Indy D is another story. From what I've been seeing on ESPN (I know, bad source) it seems that his production should continue

Harrion O5.5 (-130) - He averages more than this/game, 5.94, and he the exact type of receiver the Bears struggle against. Fast, smart route runner. May end up holding off on this one though since it's close

I was also initially looking at Addai under 16.5 carries, but it's looks pretty close from the stats and I'm probably on the wrong side.

I also guess I am a little square since I usually find myself taking overs, but it has been working for me so far this season. If anyone thinks I'm way off on any of these I'd appreciate the help, I'd probably hold off until later this evening to place any bets

[fnurt]

Dallas Clark is going to be highly overrated by the public due to his strong performance against New England. It's hard to imagine that there could be any value whatsoever on the over side of his bet.

[Spellmen]

To expand on the Manning prop, he averaged 22.625 comp/game. He only went under that 5 times, including a 14/20 performance against the Eagles because they just pounded the run with Addai. The other unders include the first game against NE, Miami, Dal, and the Jets, all 20-22 completions. He was over in the playoffs twice against NE and KC, but went 15/30 against Balt

[c_lee10]

I definitely wouldn't take Addai under 16.5 carries... If the game goes as expected (which almost never happens in these big hyped games) then the Colts win by 7 to 10. While I don't see the Colts really getting the running game going, if the Colts have a lead they will be handing the ball off not wanting to risk the huge turnover.

I'm taking Manning over 22.5 and over 273 yds. I think the Bears will pay close attention to Dallas Clark so I'm shying away from those as well. With that said, I see the Colts consistently moving the ball racking up yardage as usual. If the Bears take a lead, the Manning overs look pretty good to me.

As you already said though, everybody always loves the over when typically the under has better value.