200 NL - Big draw deep facing big bet and big reraise

[RikkiDee]

Here are my reads

Original raiser is a complete donk (one of the reasons I called preflop) and had been min raising with trash preflop up to this point. By his actions an overpair is a huge part of his range.

The post flop reraiser is a fairly solid, fairly aggressive player who I'm definitely beat by at this point.

If I push its $388 more to MP who I can't imagine can call without a set (although he does suck), and obv CO is coming along but I'll have great equity vs his range and the amount in the pot.

Thoughts?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $201.15
BB: $182.42
UTG: $16.80
MP: $471.39
CO: $253.53
Hero (BTN): $443.38

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $2.00, <font color="red">MP raises to $12.00</font>, CO calls $12.00, Hero calls $12.00, 2 folds, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $16.80</font>, MP calls $4.80, CO calls $4.80, Hero calls $4.80

Flop: ($70.20) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players - 1 All-In)
<font color="red">MP bets $66.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $132.00</font>, Hero ???

[RikkiDee]

is this just trivially easy?

if so, easy fold or easy push?

[ipp147]

I don't have PStove at work but assume MP won't fold - if he is a donk and run a sim with MP having QQ-AA and CO having sets/straight/AJhh/JThh

This is probably the absolute worst case scenario. Also bear in mind that if MP does fold to a push then you get in alot of dead money against CO's hand which you should have a bunch of outs against.

In a nutshell.

Enjoy variance - Shove
Hate variance - Fold

[kekedarius]

I fold because you have barely anything invested, have zero fold equity, and are drawing really thin.

[TheDivineRod]

Raise and enjoy the gambooool.

[Spy Dog]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold because you have barely anything invested, have zero fold equity, and are drawing really thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has a flush draw + gutshot. How can he be drawing thin? On average, he's probably going to have 40% equity in a HU pot (with lots and lots of dead money) or 30% in a 3-way pot.

Shove.

[kekedarius]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold because you have barely anything invested, have zero fold equity, and are drawing really thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has a flush draw + gutshot. How can he be drawing thin? On average, he's probably going to have 40% equity in a HU pot (with lots and lots of dead money) or 30% in a 3-way pot.

Shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I can absolutely guarantee one of them has a set/straight/NFD and you're behind all three.

[Spy Dog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold because you have barely anything invested, have zero fold equity, and are drawing really thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero has a flush draw + gutshot. How can he be drawing thin? On average, he's probably going to have 40% equity in a HU pot (with lots and lots of dead money) or 30% in a 3-way pot.

Shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I can absolutely guarantee one of them has a set/straight/NFD and you're behind all three.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course we are behind. It doesn't matter when we always have good equity against their ranges and there is a huge overlay.

[TheChad]

this is disgusting. Let's assume that they all have made hands and the PF AI has a naked ace AND all of our outs are clean (hearts and jacks). That leaves us to 13 outs against three players. Its already been noted that we have no FE, which I'm not so sure about.

MP could be thinner than we had originally thought, but meh. CO is NOT folding here for ANYTHING! I'm leaning towards no FE too. If we hit our out, we are golden. Pokulator says we're about 44%. I think it was said just about right higher up: if you like variance, get it in; else, fold.

Personally, I don't think hearts are going to make it. I'm not sure if the NFD is out there, but more or less a combo. T7 with a heart or two, Th9x, etc seem about right. That might be wide, but I've seen crazier. With the CO not folding, I get out.

[kindju]

Assuming MP folds, the pot is big enough for us to push with 0% fold equity against CO if we have at least 25% pot equity. (Which is sligthly less than what we have in the worst case scenario where CO has a set.) The only thing that screws us is if MP or CO has a the nut flush draw and calls. I doubt this is the case here so we have a very clear push.

Here is a little graph I made at work, it represents the link between FE and PE for a neutral EV push. P represents the remaining stacks in relation to the pot. Pretty straigthforward stuff but It helps me get a sense of the numbers.


Shot at 2007-07-12