NL$200 Tough river spot against regular

[Acevader]

Villain is a solid regular and my stats on him are around 16/11/3. I don't always call the flop but here I felt it was worth seeing his turn action. The turn card is good but doesn't slow villain down. I don't see him calling a raise with any hand I beat so I elect to call. However, come the river he can surely only ever have me beat or have absolutely nothing. Thoughts.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $194
BB: $201
UTG: $50.65
UTG+1: $194.35
UTG+2: $83.95
MP1: $483.15
MP2: $59.30
CO: $209.25
Hero (BTN): $202

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
6 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, SB folds, BB calls $6

Flop: ($17) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $12</font>, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($41) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $36</font>, Hero calls $36

River: ($113) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $100</font>

Hero?

[iponnet]

you could be good here, if you know he would 3bet AK prf, and AQ is unlikely since you have a one of the Qs so he either has a set of 88s or missed flush draw, I would fold raise flop though and probably fold most of the time.

[Belok]

Aside from folding the flop...
I almost never advocate a minraise...but ithink the turn is a pretty decent spot to put it in. He would probably push over you with AK or 88, but he'd probably just call the minraise with AQ/A8. You hate half of the deck on the river. Any 8, J, T, A, or spade and you're insta checkfolding. But on the turn I think you've definitely got some showdown value.

Minraise = he will slow way down with any drawing hand or bare ace, and he will instantly let you know if he has you dominated.

just my thoughts...

[Renton]

yeah pretty easy call.

well played all around if you called down

[WCGRider]

He CC from the BB and fires this flop and we arent folding KQ here? Should i call flop bets like that? In my experience its usually a pretty strong hand.

[Acevader]

I folded the hand.

As I see it he only has two hand after he makes the river bet. A stone cold 3-barrel bluff (probably a missed draw) or a hand of real value. I don't think he value bets this river with AJ, what does he expect to be called by? He therefore is far more likely to have a better two pair, possibly the same two pair, a set or turned the straight.

I think given the board texture he'd be mad to try and fire a 3rd barrel on this river and expect me to fold when I've called him twice already. I can say that a fold from me on this river in this spot is very rare.

In conclusion therefore I have to think his bet is a value bet far more often than not and in which case I'm toast.