AJo under the gun with blinds 100/200

[LarsM77]

Hi!

I don't know how to play that hand right. SitNGo Wizard tells me, this is a fold. I made my own calculation that tells me if I just call or raise I have to call if somebody pushes. It's hard for me to acceppt that the right play is to fold this hand.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button (t1745)
SB (t3160)
BB (t2030)
Hero (t1590)
UTG+1 (t1530)
MP1 (t2330)
MP2 (t1910)
CO (t5705)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]], J[[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]].

[DCJ311]

send it in for obvious reasons

[taipan168]

Easy shove with 8x BB even from UTG. You can't fold, call or standard raise here ever. What ranges are you using in SNG Wiz - that seems to be the problem.

[Paul B.]

AJo Go All In

[Semtex]

SNG qiz is telling you to fold b/c its assuming your opponents are calling way looser (maybe tighter?) than they actually are.

[Longy]

Hmmm try sngwiz again as i am damn sure this is an inexploitable push. Im shoving a10+ 66+ here.

[SitNGo Wizard]

I think this is a lot closer decision than everybody else. Using the default opponent hand ranges (which vary from 7% to 16%), a push is only +0.09%. The thing is with those ranges you are going to get called 54% of the time and when you do get called you will either be a very small favorite or a pretty big underdog.

The Wizard recommends folding because the default edge 0.56%. That may be too large, but the Wizard sets it based on the fact that you have 7 opponents in the hand left to act. Does anybody think that edge is too large for this situation?

The interesting thing about this hand is that making all of the opponents tighter decreases hero’s push EV and making them looser increases hero’s push EV.

When I set every opponent to “Very tight” range (from 4% to 10%), a push is only +0.03%. The hero will still get call 36% of the time and when he does get called he is usually a big underdog.

When I set every opponent to “Very loose” (20% to 35%), a push is +0.70%. The hero gets called 86% of the time but when he does he is way ahead of his opponent’s range.

I’m not saying you should fold this hand. But you are pushing into a lot of opponents, which makes this a much closer decision than most think.

[LarsM77]

Thanks for all the work you did and all the explanations. I can't say how much I love your software and how much I appreciate all the support you give.

[StregaChess]

Eight players remain at this blind level can we assume the table is pretty tight? What's the buy-in here? I'm in the USA so I have no idea what the hell is going on at party poker, was this a 10 player starting with 2000 chips each? Is the next blind level 100/200 ante 25, if so is it going up soon? If they are, I'd consider folding to save my image and steal the blinds with the extra 200 in it.


I don't think this is a slam dunk spot, I'm sort of leaning towards folding, but after another cup of coffee I'd lean towards pushing...

[CardPlayer1010]

I insta-fold right here. If you lose your blinds here, you are not out of it by any means and I think you are better off shoving in late position with a weaker hand than shoving with your AJo UTG here into 7 players. If you are called here you are rarely going to be ahead. In this same situation next level I shove but right now I think you have a little more time. I would rather wait for a higher +EV situation than push here where according to SitNGoWizard its about breakeven.