Big draw, multiway pot, easy push?

swede554 · #1 12-02-2006, 06:28 AM

PS $33 FO, like the 5th hand of the tourney so no reads.

Easy push yes??

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1470)
MP3 (t1490)
CO (t1530)
Hero (t1470)
SB (t640)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t2400)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t60, UTG+1 calls t60, MP1 calls t60, 1 fold, MP3 calls t60, 1 fold, Hero calls t60, SB calls t50, BB calls t40.

Flop: (t420) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets t300, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls t300, MP3 folds, Hero raises to t1410

Andy

diebitter · #2 12-02-2006, 07:07 AM

yes, I'd do exactly the same in this spot. You're hitting a straight or flush 60% of the time with the remaining cards.

Blindcurve · #3 12-02-2006, 07:09 AM

Don't we push in this spot because of both the FE and our outs? We'd like to win the hand right away but we have several outs if we get called?

I think the problem with a push here is 1) Hero has no FE against all 3 opponents and 2) some of Hero's outs are almost certainly dirty. So, Hero is definitely going to get called and therefore doesn't have enough equity to justify jamming.

Not an easy push. I would call though, esp. since I close the action. Re-evaluate action on the turn.

-D.

runout_mick · #4 12-02-2006, 07:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would call though, esp. since I close the action. Re-evaluate action on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we can get our chips in now, we're ahead of everything but (maybe including?) trips. If we wait until the turn, we lose 1/2 of our outs.

We're not pushing for FE, we're pushing for value.

HamJam · #5 12-02-2006, 07:17 AM

with ten high opponents folding has more ev than them calling since you are rarely more than a light favorite, even though you are a slight favorite ove most things.

runout_mick · #6 12-02-2006, 07:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
with ten high opponents folding has more ev than them calling since you are rarely more than a light favorite, even though you are a slight favorite ove most things.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the push though, we'll be folding out the hands we want to fold (higher straight draws, slightly higher flush draws) while possibly retaining the top pair/ overpair type made hands that we want to call.

If we just call, we fold out none of the better (higher) draws, and giving the made hands a chance to fold if we hit the turn.

Edit: In this situation, I'd love for UTG to call with his slowplayed KK...

diebitter · #7 12-02-2006, 07:41 AM

Doyle would all-in, Hellmuth wouldn't, if that helps.

HamJam · #8 12-02-2006, 07:47 AM

did you interpret my post as advocating a call? no, the correct play is definitely push, and you definitely want opponents to fold better made hands. you are making a lot more chips from the times KK folds than when it calls you (especially considering KK has you slightly beat, but also weaker made hands you may be ahead of)

Blindcurve · #9 12-02-2006, 07:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would call though, esp. since I close the action. Re-evaluate action on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we can get our chips in now, we're ahead of everything but (maybe including?) trips. If we wait until the turn, we lose 1/2 of our outs.

We're not pushing for FE, we're pushing for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's our equity against trips:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.047 secs 21,063 games/sec

Board: 8d 9d 8s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.5758 % 42.42% 00.15% { Td7d }
Hand 2: 57.4242 % 57.27% 00.15% { As8c }

In addition, we're up against 3 callers who most likely have a reasonable amount of equity here. Assuming we're not against the nightmare scenario 99, we still have to fade bigger straight draws, and bigger flush draws and our hand is no good if we hit a T. I think this is a reasonable estimation that doesn't even include T9 or AQ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] orAJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] --

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

820 games 0.005 secs 164,000 games/sec

Board: 8d 9d 8s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.6585 % 28.66% 00.00% { Td7d }
Hand 2: 44.7561 % 44.76% 00.00% { As8c }
Hand 3: 17.6829 % 17.68% 00.00% { Ad5d }
Hand 4: 08.9024 % 08.90% 00.00% { Ah9h }

(I'm not sure if I should have given each caller the chance to hold a reasonable range...I just did it this way. Someone else might have a more accurate model.)

As you see, we've got slightly more than our share of equity, but we're pushing t1410 into a t1020 pot. Unless we're called in all three spots, we're not getting the right price.

If the TPTK folds, our equity only moves up to 26%- we aren't getting enough value, as far as I can see.

I could be in left field.

-D.

Blindcurve · #10 12-02-2006, 08:01 AM

Another way to look at this might be: With three callers already, there is a good chance, (say 67%, is that reasonable?) that trips or a full house are in and slowplaying. Given that, is it a good idea to push, knowing 2/3's of the time we will get called by a hand that we are the dog end of 42/57 against- again, assuming we aren't already dead as fried chicken...