Help on the river

[Duck Rabbit]

Villain is 44/20 over relatively small sample. Essentially my hand is only a bluff catcher here. Did my turn check induce a bluff from him enough that I can call?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<font color="black">SB: $710.70</font>
BB: $832.75
UTG: $737.65
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $699.25</font>
BTN: $579

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J A (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $18, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($48) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $30</font>, SB calls $30

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($108) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($108) K (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $108</font>, [i]Hero

[Duck Rabbit]

I just realized my flop bet was pretty small. I normally would make it 36ish. The turn is definitely debatable. I checked because I wanted to make a value bet on most river cards.

[NoPokerInAfrica]

I think it's tempting to call here because your line makes it look like you have a pocket pair which got scared when the overcards hit.

But I think there are strong reasons for folding. If he's bluffing, then why did he check call on the flop? It's probably a good call with a pair since it seems like a likely board for a cbet, but after the turn brings an Ace, it's hard to see what you're beating with, say, a pair of 10's.

The question, then, is what kind of hands might he be able to push you off of? I don't think that trying to bluff strong aces which connect on the turn is likely to be a +EV play. You would really have to know the player and you say he has only been playing with you for a little while. Really the only hands which beat a pair of 10's which he can hope to profitably bluff are JJ and QQ. The problem is that this is such a small range that I don't see how it could merit the attempt. The combined probability that you have an ace or that you have some lower pocket pair which he can beat when checked down I think make the bluff pretty suspect.

Perhaps a counterargument for calling is that a pot sized bet is not begging for a call...maybe he would have made a smaller milker bet with a strong hand. But I think a pot sized bet is perfect for this situation. I think JJ and QQ are very likely to fold regardless of bet size. The range this value bet is targetting is precisely your range--the strong ace that cbetted and hit on the turn. This hand will have a tough time laying down and if the big bet makes it look more suspicious all the better.

So the hand which best sems to fit calling preflop, check calling rainbow board, checking turn and big betting river is a flopped set. Maaaybe A10, but it would take some testicular fortitude to just check call on flop with so many scary overcards possible on turn.

The only hand I could see check calling flop and trying for bluff on river is 89. I just don't think you're gonna take down the pot 1/3 of the time in this situation to make the call profitable. Sorry for the rant.

[ArturiusX]

Yeah I insta call here. Plenty of bluffing hands, and the only hand we really fear is a A7 type hand.

[mungpo]

You wanted to induce a bluff and you did, now call.

[ilikeaces86_]

K10 A10 A7 K7 etc.. are what part of his range would you guys say.

[NoPokerInAfrica]

I disagree.

You say there's "plenty of bluffing hands." well what are they? Specifically, which bluffing hand would call on the rainbow flop?

There are 3 pieces of information that we have to fit:

1) He called a raise out of position preflop
2) He called a bet on the flop on a really dry board
3) He made a big bet on the river

Like I said in my first post, I think 3) makes a lot of sense if he's bluffing, but also if he has a really strong hand.

My point though, is that his having a strong hand also fits his calling on the flop, while having a bluffing hand does not.

Let's start with a wide preflop calling range for him. I'll err on the loose side so you don't accuse me of fixing the numbers. I'm new to the forums so I'm not sure what 44/20 means...maybe it says something about how loose he is? (If you could explain it to me I'd appreciate it).

Preflop Calling Range:

Any pocket pair
Any ace
KQ-K10
QJ-Q10
any suited connector

Then the flop comes 10 7 4, and he check calls. I won't go through each one, but I would guess this would narrow down his range to these: (I also give the number of ways he could have the hand given the final board)

A-10, A-7, A-4, K-10-------9*4 = 36 hands-----30% likely
Q-10, J-10, 10-9-----------12*3 = 36 hands----30% likely
QQ, JJ---------------------6*2 = 12 hands-----10% likely
99, 88---------------------6*2 = 12 hands-----10% likely
AA, KK, 1010, 77, 44-------3*5 = 15 hands-----13% likely
89 and 56 suited-----------4*2 = 8 hands------7% likely

-------------------total hands = 119 hands

The only piece of information left to fit then is the big bet on the river.

How likely is each hand to bet big on the river?

For example, I would agree the busted straight draw might be very tempted to try a bluff. He might even bluff then as frequently as 60% of the time.

QQ and JJ, on the other hand, I don't think would ever bluff. They'd never get called by a worse hand and would quite often get called by a better hand. They'd just check hoping for a showdown. They could maybe make a blocking bet, but never a pot sized bet.

I would lump A10, A7, A4, K10, AA, KK, 1010, 77 and 44 all into one group as they are the hands which are betting out for value. As I said in my first post, the pot sized bet makes a lot of sense in this case. Weak hands like QQ, JJ or a 10 are not likely to call a bet of any size. So you take advantage of a seemingly big and suspicious bet to get called by hands like Ax. Assuming the player is good enough to realize this, I would assign the probability that he would make a big bet 95-100% But then again maybe he's really bad, who knows. This probability would get shaded but what your opinion is of him so far. Maybe you're not really sure how good he is so we could estimate it at around 80%

The toughest group to estimate I think is 10-9, J-10 and Q-10. I would think this group of hands would just want to check down in the hope they could catch you with a lower pocket pair or simply crap. It's a scary board for both players so it doesn't seem particularly likely you'd get bluffed out if you just checked. There simply aren't many hands you could push out which you're not already beating. You have a 10--really the only candidates are JJ and QQ, maybe a random hand with a K? The range seems so small that a bluff looks foolish. Besides, making a play is the exception rather than the norm. People normally play straightforwardly. I really don't see a bluff as being more likely than around 20%, but maybe he's really bad--let's be generous and make it 30%.

88 and 99 have slightly more reason to bluff since they could push out hands containing a 10. Let's give them 40%

So let's put everything together:
Prob of Prob of Prob of
A-10, A-7, A-4, K-10, Having Big Bet Both
AA, KK, 1010, 77 or 44------43%--------80%---------34.4%
Q-10, J-10, 10-9------------30%--------30%---------9%
QQ, JJ----------------------10%--------0%----------0%
99, 88----------------------10%--------40%---------4%
89 and 56 suited------------7%---------60%---------4.2%

So in total, when he bets big on the end,

he's bluffing:------17.2% of the time
he's beating you:---34.4% of the time

Interestingly, the odds against his bluffing you are exactly 2:1 (34.4/17.2) I really didn't plan it like that at all.

The pot gives you 206/108 odds also exactly 2:1, so you have an exactly break-even call. In retrospect, after all this analysis, that's really funny.

This, however, is the best case scenario. I made some very loose and somewhat dubious assumptions.

For example, would he really call out of position preflop with 56 suited? with 109 offsuit? I really believe that if he were good he would make a big bet on the river with a strong hand close to 100% of the time. If we shade any of the probabilities toward more realistic expectations of a good player, the call would very quickly become unprofitable.

Unfortunately this post is so long that no one is reading it by now =)

[RiverHebrew2]

Both straights missed. Villain MIGHT c/c set on flop and c/r turn, but unlikely. He has KT, set, or air IMO. He could have AT, but I also c people make a smallish c/r on flop with like AT for value/info. I probably call it down here. Turn check induces the river bluff, so I like a call. Wuts his AF? BTW, his vpip shows he's sorta splashy/laggy... with these stats I call here ~80% of the time, and expect to c a weaker hand than urs like T's bluffing here or busted draw a lot more than KT, AT, or set.

[NoPokerInAfrica]

I might consider calling if he seems really laggy, I can't see myself calling a tight aggressive player. Maybe if someone could explain the 44/20 part to me it would help (and you wouldn't have really long posts from me for you to...ignore =P)

thx

[A2steaksauce]

40/22 means 40% voluntarily put money in pot, 22% raise preflop.