nut flush facing a very strange river bet--- push/call/fold?

[reef2287]

i mean you have about 50 left, his huge overbet leads me to believe hes going to call your shove very wide (since its only 25 more into a 100 dollar pot then) and i think your WA of his range so i would shove, sorry i wasn't indicating folding in my post but i do think if your not shoving this, your losing EV, like to see what other, more wise folks have to say

[ssdex]

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well i was never consider folding-----

i just wasnt sure if a call or a push was better here--- obviously sometimes it will be 99 or QQ--- but is it a lower flush or a really poorly played AA/KK that are paying us when we shove to make a shove +ev here?

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Looking at my thinking above, what types of flushes are you putting him on? The only clubs he can hold that are big are the Kc and the Jc.

We are readless, so we can't assume Kc2c (he did raise UTG after all). JcTc doesn't work since you have the Tc.

KcJc I guess is possible but seems unlikely, readless.

So if you are putting him on a flush as part of his range, which flush did you have in mind?

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he raised from the small blind--- I think 99 is the only full house id be really worried about--- seems like a strange raise pre flop with QQ--- i have no idea what he could have but i think its much wider then hands that beat us---- i just wasnt sure if he could have hands good enough to call a shove often enough to negate the times he has us crushed here

its one of those spots where im not sure how profitable a shove is here.

[nyc999]

I might be missing value, but I'm calling instead of pushing. One of the problems is your call/call/call line provided no information about the strength of the SB's hand, which is why I would have raised the flop. Additionally, your line is played like a flush draw, and the villain didn't look afraid of the river card, and may have made the overbet believing you hit.

[reef2287]

but villans huge overbet on the river, what do you take that as? pocket 9's, queen 9 maybe, maybe lower flush? just such an odd line from villan-- but i see the reasoning in just calling, his line just seems donkish trying to scare us away when the flush hits

[ssdex]

i don't think villain is good enough to "know" i have a flush---- and therefore overbet his full house--- i think his line seems more bluffy--- i would expect a value bet out of a full house here--- for example 15 would scare me much more. 25 seems like the river 9 was a miracle but not a boat miracle, villain probably thinks I have like a weakish Q or i played trip 3's poorly.

[nyc999]

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but villans huge overbet on the river, what do you take that as? pocket 9's, queen 9 maybe, maybe lower flush? just such an odd line from villan-- but i see the reasoning in just calling, his line just seems donkish trying to scare us away when the flush hits

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Maybe 8's, maybe 9's, maybe a complete bluff. It's difficult with no previous reads and real information about the strength of villain's hand that could have been learned from a flop and/or turn raise.

[reef2287]

im with ssdex, i think at these levels, fish don't make any reads and put him on a flush and would never try to hide a boat by overbetting the river, they just see a large bet as scary but i think a flop raise would have made the whole hand a little bit easier to play but i def. see your reasoning, but i want 25 more dollars into this pot because i think we're WA more often than WB

[ssdex]

strangely villain had J10-- no clubs and I was kind of upset at myself for just calling and not pushing

but i wanted to know what everyone thought about this river--- so i was not the only one baffled by J 10 playing this hand this way.

[maciczka]

push or even shove

[Greco]

i actually like re rasing pre here and raising on the flop or turn.by then the money should be in and this problem will be non existent.
his line was def not standard but i feel you played it far to passively. he bet the same on flop and turn and you merely called. it screams draw or poss under pair. when he gets there he prob thinks 'great' and goes a bit mad with his bet.
in the heat of the moment i may call this instead of push but thinking he would surely bet a set harder??
being more aggressive on any street would clear this hand up no end.