Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Gambling > Sports Betting

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:35 PM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[ QUOTE ]
Is anyone buying into the Albert Haynesworth is the Bob Sanders of last year bit? With Tennessee looking as bad as they have been without him, I'm wondering if there's much value in following his status.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tennessee's average points allowed WITH AH: 15.5
Tennessee's average points allowed WITHOUT AH: 32.33

Small sample size, and Tennessee HAS played some good offensive teams in the past 3 weeks, but they are clearly a different football team without him in the lineup. I'd go so far as to say I'd take the Texans if I knew he was out and the Titans if I knew he was in.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:23 PM
MCS MCS is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Brooklyn! What!
Posts: 5,447
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

Miami -1.5 (ev) for 1u

GO DOLPHINS!
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-28-2007, 05:26 PM
ElSapo ElSapo is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Eating at Transcendental Sandwich.
Posts: 2,900
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

I looked at the Washington line after the death of Sean Taylor, and it was -5 (-106) .... The line is now -5.5

Anyone know where it was before the shooting? And why does it move like this? (These are more curiosity/theoretical I suppose)...
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:14 PM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

All plays are risking 1u.

Dolphins -1 (-110)

Get ready to pop those champagne corks '76 Bucs. Miami's the better team, albeit barely, and they're at home. It's time to celebrate.

Vikes -3.5 (-110)

The last time I bet on a Vikings game and ignored matchups it bit me in the ass. Well, the matchups favor the Lions in this game as well, but the Vikings are just too good of a team, despite not always playing like one. Interesting note, according to FO, the Vikes are the favorite (at 34.5%) to win the 6th playoff spot assuming the Giants and current division leaders stay the same.

Panthers/49ers O35 (-110)

I'm sorry. I know we're looking at two dreadful offenses here, but I cannot dignify seeing a total this low in a game that features two bottom 10 defenses.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:27 PM
mogwai316 mogwai316 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 266
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[ QUOTE ]
I looked at the Washington line after the death of Sean Taylor, and it was -5 (-106) .... The line is now -5.5

Anyone know where it was before the shooting? And why does it move like this? (These are more curiosity/theoretical I suppose)...

[/ QUOTE ]

sbrlines shows the opener as -5 -104. Personally, I tend to stay away from games that become unpredictable due to external events like this. Washington could play very poorly because they are grieving and distracted, or they could play great because they are very motivated to win in Taylor's memory. It's too risky to try to guess which way it will turn out.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:29 PM
mogwai316 mogwai316 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 266
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

Dolphins seem to be a big BSP pick this week; everybody thinks they are finally going to get a win. My sample may be biased since I'm in Florida, although these aren't really Dolphins fans that I've heard from.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 11-28-2007, 06:30 PM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[ QUOTE ]
Dolphins seem to be a big BSP pick this week; everybody thinks they are finally going to get a win. My sample may be biased since I'm in Florida, although these aren't really Dolphins fans that I've heard from.

[/ QUOTE ]

wagerline has it at 50/50 at 1.5 right now. Not nearly as BSPish as Cleveland, Denver and SD.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 11-29-2007, 09:42 AM
MCS MCS is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Brooklyn! What!
Posts: 5,447
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[ QUOTE ]
Dolphins seem to be a big BSP pick this week; everybody thinks they are finally going to get a win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? It hasn't seemed like that to me. I have them for 1u either way. I'm looking at market price/DVOA/Sagarin/tea leaves.





[ QUOTE ]
My sample may be biased since I'm in Florida, although these aren't really Dolphins fans that I've heard from.

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in New York but haven't heard much from New Yorkers about the game.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 11-29-2007, 11:13 AM
Lori Lori is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: In cyberspace, no-one can hear your sig.
Posts: 6,284
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

My fave NFL scenario is hideous home team against not quite as hideous road team.

I'm a little concerned about all the people who seem to think Miami is not complete crap based on the fact that they've not been slaughtered as they've been fortunate enough to have at least two games on unplayable surfaces which will totally wreck any statistical analysis of their play for the season. However, crap or not, the Jets are pretty much as bad.

However I like my motivation based picks a lot, and given that they can afford to win this, impress the fans (lol) and not screw up #1 draft pick while the Jets have nothing at all of interest to show up for, I'm going to take this.

Less of the Dolphins aren't crap posts though please.

I'll likely be taking STL at -5 or better (hoping for -3) too when the line finally decides to turn up. Similar reasons, although neither team is as bad as these two.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 11-29-2007, 11:32 AM
kyro kyro is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Melting Sabrina
Posts: 24,320
Default Re: *** OFFICIAL 12/02/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

Lorindo,

The Dolphins weren't crap even before the Giants game. I mean, OK, they were crap, but they were like girl crap, and not 300-pound sweaty man crap.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:50 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.