High Stakes Poker thread (11/12 - 500k Buyin - Part 2 Spoilers ahoy)

[Dromar]

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so, what i was saying was that it was smart for PA to choose the number 3. you can't expect gold to hit the boat two out of three times but it is possible for him to hit 1 out of 2. if gold gets lucky 1 out of two times antonius makes nothing (very very little) ... if it goes as expected and antonius wins 2 out of 3 .. or 3 out of 3... antonius has thereby increased his chances of making a profit on the hand. antonius was somewhere around 75 to 77% to win this hand. not a lock by any stretch.

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The EV is the same no matter how many times you run it. You may or may not have been aware of this. But when you state that running it more times gives PA a better chance of profiting on the hand, while true, it's somewhat misguided.

Here's the thing: PA had 77% equity in a 700K pot (or whatever, I don't remember the exact pot size anymore). He's already made his profit, and it's fixed. Specifically, 77% of the pot basically belongs to him. Any difference between his "profit" and his actual win is just variance. So, similar to what you said, running it more -> decrease variance -> higher chance that PA has more money than he started the hand with. But keep in mind that it doesn't change the EV.


It's possible, based on how you stated things, that you think PA makes more money by running it more, evidenced by having a higher chance of profiting on the hand. I'm just trying to say that, while he will profit more often, the profit will be smaller on average (because Jamie will almost certainly get at least some of the pot) the more times the hand gets run.



On a related note, I believe that running it 3 times was a good idea for PA, specifically because it left a greater chance for Jamie to have money after the hand. Losing with top set against a straight (no matter how good or bad he played) is the type of hand that makes someone not want to rebuy.