Flop Decision w/ Bottom Two Pair

mmmmmbeeeer · #1 07-27-2006, 01:14 PM

i was sweating my brother near the end of a 33+r tournament on party when this interesting hand came up.

pertinent info: blinds are 4k/8k. hero is chipleader in the tournament w/ about 360K. there are 14-15 players remaining. things have been going extremely well for hero, as he has been able to accumulate liberally with steals but has been fortunate enough to have the goods whenever someone has played back. for this reason, hero's image is probably not as lag as he has been playing b/c he has only shown down quality hands.

villain is relatively new to the table, and is 2nd or 3rd in chips w/ around 320K. thus far he seems pretty tight and normal.

anyway, w/ 4k/8k blinds and a small ante, hero raise to 24K utg+1 w/ T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. villain cold calls in the sb.

flop (pot ~58K): t [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

check, hero bets 40k, villain minraises to 80k.

action? i can imagine arguments being made for various lines here.

Dave D · #2 07-27-2006, 01:41 PM

I fold QTs at a full table UTG+1 PF. There's no reason to splash around chips with your stack.

Personally I push this. I think I vomit in my mouth a little because it's a 33r and the caliber of player is better than normal, especially this late. I think often enough this minraise is villian trying to figure out where he stands, and that board has a billion draws on it.

I'm very happy taking it down on the flop, and I think winning this hand probably makes us a lock for top 5. I think folding is just weak tight.

TheBlueMonster · #3 07-27-2006, 01:54 PM

I don't know if I'd call. Even with mouth vomit. Let's say you have the best hand. There's no point in completely crippling yourself with a vulnerable hand.

Dave D · #4 07-27-2006, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I'd call. Even with mouth vomit. Let's say you have the best hand. There's no point in completely crippling yourself with a vulnerable hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense. Either you have the best hand, or it's vulnerable.

Unless you're worried that villian might hit his gutshot...

You're also assuming villian calls, whichI think is a bad assumpton.

mmmmmbeeeer · #5 07-27-2006, 02:48 PM

PF: it is not a full table, it was 7-handed. given the way the table was playing and the fact that hero holds a hand that can provide him with many flops with which he can be aggressive i think the raise is very standard.

i'm holding off on my flop thoughts for now, but with what kind of hands is the sb calling an utg+1 raise and then minraising this flop?

mmmmmbeeeer · #6 07-27-2006, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I'd call. Even with mouth vomit. Let's say you have the best hand. There's no point in completely crippling yourself with a vulnerable hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense. Either you have the best hand, or it's vulnerable.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not an either/or proposition.

if villain has, say, K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], your hand is both best right now and very vulnerable

Dave D · #7 07-27-2006, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I'd call. Even with mouth vomit. Let's say you have the best hand. There's no point in completely crippling yourself with a vulnerable hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense. Either you have the best hand, or it's vulnerable.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not an either/or proposition.

if villain has, say, K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], your hand is both best right now and very vulnerable

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fundamental flaw in your thinking. The "what if villian hits" should never be a consideration in this way. If you're ahead right now, you're ahead, take advantage of it, and its not like you're giving villian good odds to hit a flush draw or something.

If you're vulnerable, then you're vulnerable. That's why you should push and hope that villian correctly folds. If he hits his 33%er, so be it, but you got your money in with the best hand.

Push your edges when you have them.

mmmmmbeeeer · #8 07-27-2006, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I'd call. Even with mouth vomit. Let's say you have the best hand. There's no point in completely crippling yourself with a vulnerable hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense. Either you have the best hand, or it's vulnerable.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not an either/or proposition.

if villain has, say, K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], your hand is both best right now and very vulnerable

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fundamental flaw in your thinking. The "what if villian hits" should never be a consideration in this way. If you're ahead right now, you're ahead, take advantage of it, and its not like you're giving villian good odds to hit a flush draw or something.

If you're vulnerable, then you're vulnerable. That's why you should push and hope that villian correctly folds. If he hits his 33%er, so be it, but you got your money in with the best hand.

Push your edges when you have them.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, you misunderstood me. i was making no comment regarding the proper flop play. i wasn't saying that i should fold b/c i'm vulnerable.

you made an either/or statement. "Either you have the best hand, or it's vulnerable." this means one of the two propositions in the statement is true, but not both. my example was to point out that your either/or is false, because in that case you both have the best hand and have a vulnerable hand.

allenciox · #9 07-27-2006, 05:17 PM

There is absolutely no reason to push this hand, you are in-position. There are a lot of hands he could hold here:

The ones that currently are ahead of you are:

AJ,J9,KK,QQ,TT,KQ,KT (16+16+3+1+1+6+6=49 hands)

He also might bet this way with:

AK,KJ,QJ,JT,JJ,AA (12+12+12+12+6+6=60 hands)

You are ahead on just over half the hands I include in his range. Of course, there is also the remote chance(I consider it almost nonexistent on this board) that it is a complete bluff.

So there is no reason to fold. There is also absolutely no reason to commit your stack here in-position. Almost all the possible hands that currently beat you are subject to redraws. Call and reevaluate on the turn. If you make a boat, you can safely commit your stack. If you call, and he checks the turn, you can feel pretty confident he is on a draw and make him pay for it then (very few players check-raise on both the flop and the turn). If he bets strongly on the turn or if a 9 or A comes, you can safely dump your hand then.