Common spot from the BB HU

[MartynasD]

i say do it randomly
sometimes call down sometimes fold on turn
but it looks u r behind,i folded here

[UtzChips]

My attempt to come up with an answer using a mathematical approach, well, it was "poor" at best.

I am doing it over, and, as I am, I am coming up with things I don't like about your hand:

The flush draw on the flop doesn't include the ace, so all the Ax suited hands he'd play in clubs are live. So, you are drawing to 3 outs, not 5, when he is on a flush draw.

On the turn, things get worse. If he would have bet with all holdings that included 2 non-paired broadway cards, in an attempt to get the turn & river cards on the cheap, he could have possibly made a straight or picked up a flush draw on the turn. Not to mention the fact that if he had KJ, you're drawing dead.

The worse thing about the whole situation after the flop:

You only have 102 possible holdings, out of the 28.5% starting range of 1326 hands (378) in which you have 5 outs against when you are behind. Actually, it's 3 outs when he's on a flush draw.

The majority of the hands that you are ahead of, well they are flush draws with 9 outs. QJ & JT in clubs, have 14 outs against you.

The only hands you are way ahead of:

97s; 87s; 76s (not in clubs or spades) 6 hands out of over 300.

The others that you are ahead of have sufficient pot odds to call to see the river.

So,unless I'm missing something, the bulk of the time, your opponent has sufficient pot odds to continue, and you seldom do.

[Carmine]

When playing against an unknown I try to use the board to assist in making decisions and try to at least think what he thinks I might be calling with.

In this example we have a FD possible so villain has to consider that in my range and may fire again on the turn with a worse hand. It's also the reason why I wouldn't C/R fold to a 3-bet on this board as Villain may 3-bet putting me on a draw. Notice also that the turn created another possible FD so Villain may just fire again with any [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hand. I combine those possibilities with the fact that villain opened from CO (a wider range)and I decide to just call this down.

Now if the board was drawless (AK7r)I will C/F more rivers. My kicker will also assist in my decision here.

If anyone disagrees with the way I analyze these situations please speak up.

[UtzChips]

I don't disagree with your analysis. I disagree with playing the hand period, and, I don't believe I am right, but I can't see the forest for the trees.

To begin with, I don't label players as "loose-aggressive" until they prove they are. I label them as solid. By doing this, I am putting them on a narrower range and am not pricing myself into a hand, when I shouldn't be.

That said, I'll put the CO on 26.8% of all holdings:
A2s+ A5o+
K7s+ K9o+
Q9s+ QTo+
J8s+
T8s+
97s+
87s+
76s+

That's 355 hands, of which, 22.54% of the time (K9s/o-AKs/o), we are drawing dead (Preflop) to our 8.

He has pocket pairs 8 or higher 11.43% of the time.

All of these percentages are before the deal. I'm not going to go and remove the possibilities after I'm dealt K8, as it doesn't go down considerably and takes too much time, but if we discount the total (33.97%) to 25%, we see that 1/4 of the time, we are hurting big time before we see the flop.

Pokerstove has us as a 60.9:36.28 dog, which is 1.68:1, which is a nice overlay on our 3.5:1 pot odds, however, if the flop comes QT8 v. our K8, villain's T8s,J8s, as well as several stronger holdings have us beat on the flop, when we consider him paired to a ten. Then there are those times he is paired to a Q. Then there are the flush/straight draws and on and on. I just don't see K8o being profitable and I muck it preflop.

[sqvirrel]

[ QUOTE ]


Pokerstove has us as a 60.9:36.28 dog, which is 1.68:1, which is a nice overlay on our 3.5:1 pot odds, however, if the flop comes QT8 v. our K8, villain's T8s,J8s, as well as several stronger holdings have us beat on the flop, when we consider him paired to a ten. Then there are those times he is paired to a Q. Then there are the flush/straight draws and on and on. I just don't see K8o being profitable and I muck it preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

It might not be profitable but if so it isn't because it is dominated by J8 and T8 hands.

[UtzChips]

"It might not be profitable but if so it isn't because it is dominated by J8 and T8 hands."

Although my post seemed as if I was saying that, it is not what I meant. I meant that there are numerous hands, which are weaker than K8o, that CO could be playing, that gives him a better hand on the flop, when we pair our 8, or a great draw.
I put down J8, which should have been JT, which gives him a better pair, or J9s, which gives him the straight. J8s, gives him 12 outs when it's in clubs.

If you look at the holdings of a player open/raising with 28.5%, 2 broadway cards on the flop give him a lot of possibilities the majority of the time, even when he doesn't flop a pair. Especially since the majority of the hands are suited.

[sqvirrel]

[ QUOTE ]
there are numerous hands, which are weaker than K8o, that CO could be playing, that gives him a better hand on the flop, when we pair our 8,

[/ QUOTE ]

And there are a number of superior hands that villain could be playing that are in trouble when we pair one of our cards. I understand your argument but you really are only looking at one side. Against some opponents I will even fold weak aces in the BB to pfr for the reasons you mention but against many a hand like K8o is very playable.

[ QUOTE ]

the majority of the hands are suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

No they aren't. Not counting pairs there are three times as many unsuited combos as suited ones. Throwing in a couple of extra suited combos doesn't come close to closing the gap. Furthermore, suited doesn't necessarily mean the flop hits you. Most of the time it won't.

[werero]

[ QUOTE ]
My attempt to come up with an answer using a mathematical approach, well, it was "poor" at best.

I am doing it over, and, as I am, I am coming up with things I don't like about your hand:

The flush draw on the flop doesn't include the ace, so all the Ax suited hands he'd play in clubs are live. So, you are drawing to 3 outs, not 5, when he is on a flush draw.

On the turn, things get worse. If he would have bet with all holdings that included 2 non-paired broadway cards, in an attempt to get the turn & river cards on the cheap, he could have possibly made a straight or picked up a flush draw on the turn. Not to mention the fact that if he had KJ, you're drawing dead.

The worse thing about the whole situation after the flop:

You only have 102 possible holdings, out of the 28.5% starting range of 1326 hands (378) in which you have 5 outs against when you are behind. Actually, it's 3 outs when he's on a flush draw.

The majority of the hands that you are ahead of, well they are flush draws with 9 outs. QJ & JT in clubs, have 14 outs against you.

The only hands you are way ahead of:

97s; 87s; 76s (not in clubs or spades) 6 hands out of over 300.

The others that you are ahead of have sufficient pot odds to call to see the river.

So,unless I'm missing something, the bulk of the time, your opponent has sufficient pot odds to continue, and you seldom do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice work with the math Utz!
After the turn card was dealt I had about 40% equity if we assume he was opening with 28.5% from the cu. I believe that there are lots of villains that would (correctly?) bet any holding they might have on the turn after their flopconbet and my turn check on this board. Either just value betting or betting an underpair / draw figuring i fold the best hand often enough. I think I'm one of those players so against me you're probably making a mistake if folding to the turnbet.

Getting around 4:1 on a turncall with 40% equity has to be marginally profitable when considering RIO, and domination. Sure I'm way behind of a lot of hands but also way ahead of others, like K5s-K7s, underpairs, 87s, 76. Even T9, TJo, QJo that he may very well bet the turn with.

[UtzChips]

"Nice work with the math Utz!"

Thanks, but undeserved I'm afraid. I missed some elements and the rake is all wrong, as far as playing on Pokerstars.
They take the rake in 25 cent increments (in 1/2 limit), so $5.00 has to go into the pot before they rake their first quarter.
So, it could go: CO raises, folded to BB who calls. $4.50 in the pot. BB cks on flop, CO bets, BB folds. No rake, as the flop bet wasn't called, and CO nets $2.50 on his $2 investment.

Also, if the pot gets up to $9.50 and then is won, all that is raked is 25 cents.

I took a look at my results with K7o in the BB. I had the hand 52 times and net loss was (.50) BBs, as compared to Stox's Mid player of (.32), but note that K7s lost (.61).

I played the hand 29 times, never calling a raise and net loss was (.53), however, I lost 2 big hands. Once I flopped two pair and lost to runner, runner flush. The other time I flopped top pair and lost to a gutshot str8 draw that came in on the river. Had it not been for those two hands, my overall return would have been much better. That's poker, and my number of trials is real small. I think over time, I should reduce my losses, hopefully.

Note: Stox's high limit player's overall return for K7o was (.49). Suited: (.35).

The difference between my (.50) BB loss per hand and someone with a loss of (.35), (.15) per hand, or 15 BBs per 100 instances.

I have a database of 34k+ hands, 6.3k+ hands in the BB, and only been dealt K7o 52 times, so, I guess every 68k hands or so, I'll have a negative return of 15 BBs. Unless, I make up for those two suckouts I mentioned and bring down my overall return.

Otherwise, after 70k hands, I'll have a 15 BB deficit as compared to someone who plays K7o and only loses (.35), and multiply that by just 6 hands that someone plays better in the BB than I and suddenly I have a 90 BB deficit.

Pretty easy to make a mountain out of a string of slightly imperfect plays.