turn strategy

[surfdoc]

I was talking about the logic on the flop. Of course when he checks the turn it becomes very unlikely he has AJ but we didn't have that piece of information at the time we had to make the decision.

[ship it pls]

i checked the turn, and button bets... sb now c/r the button's bet and has 1/2 a bet behind after...

my biggest question, how often can we fold button off AK/AQ here - he hasn't seen me get out of line or play tricky in large pots thus far, but knows i am a bit laggier than most regulars...

[GuyOnTilt]

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i want to clean up an ace out and if button has two kings or queens he may 3ball and we can go lots of bets with lots of equity.


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This is pretty bad. You should just call the flop here. Change the 8 on the flop to a 9 and I raise.

[surfdoc]

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i checked the turn, and button bets... sb now c/r the button's bet and has 1/2 a bet behind after...

my biggest question, how often can we fold button off AK/AQ here - he hasn't seen me get out of line or play tricky in large pots thus far, but knows i am a bit laggier than most regulars...



[/ QUOTE ]

Why does it matter? If you pop in a 3 bet here you may get him off and get it HU with the best hand? What is the point with him almost AI?

[ship it pls]

sb definitely does not need to have a hand better than mine to c/r...

button can definitely get out of line, and both sb and i know this... player on the button will bet with position very liberally and sb isolates post flop very heavily...

if sb has 2pr or better b/3b is a lot more likely imo, especially given his chip count, his c/r line looks significantly more like he is trying to feel out where i am in the hand and remove me from it after i show weakness...

[ship it pls]

With 12bb in the pot, I am not folding for 2 more because at a minimum because I have 8 clean outs which gives me 18% equity worst case… so call is standard but discussing a raise may be useful

Simply - If I am ahead of sb 10% of the time and I can fold button off his hand 100% of the time I am effectively gaining 10% of the pot for 0.5 bb

A better estimation in my opinion is – we are ahead of sb 20% of the time, and button folds 50% of the time, and 4 bets with us drawing to 8 outs 10% of the time…
- in this case I am gaining 10% of the 12bb pot (1.2) for a cost of .5bb, but loose 1.6bb 10% of the time when I am 4-bet… so that would be +1.2 - .5 -.16, which comes out profitable… but the assumptions are difficult to estimate… so discussion on the play is going to be the most helpful imo

i did have a coupel questions aside from the discussion though:

How often am I ahead of sb based on given tendencies?
How often does button fold a better hand?
Do we think this is a good line or utter garbage?

thanks

[surfdoc]

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i want to clean up an ace out and if button has two kings or queens he may 3ball and we can go lots of bets with lots of equity.


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This is pretty bad. You should just call the flop here. Change the 8 on the flop to a 9 and I raise.

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Could you lay out the difference? I have been thinking about it and I can't really figure out.

[Anacardo]

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i want to clean up an ace out and if button has two kings or queens he may 3ball and we can go lots of bets with lots of equity.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is pretty bad. You should just call the flop here. Change the 8 on the flop to a 9 and I raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you lay out the difference? I have been thinking about it and I can't really figure out.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are many more hands that can cold-call and overlay our nut draw with a J9x flop than a J8x flop. Plus our backdoor straight potential is much better. This is just enough to swing a call to a raise. GoT does not bother pointing such things out because to get bogged down in the details of his awesome flop texture analyses would be beneath him. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[GuyOnTilt]

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[
i want to clean up an ace out and if button has two kings or queens he may 3ball and we can go lots of bets with lots of equity.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is pretty bad. You should just call the flop here. Change the 8 on the flop to a 9 and I raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you lay out the difference? I have been thinking about it and I can't really figure out.

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Ranges that coldcall EP raises are more likely to call 2 bets on a J9x flop than a J8x flop. Couple that with your improved bd draws giving you better equity and needing fewer average flop callers and it's a raise.

[surfdoc]

Thanks. That is pretty subtle but it makes sense.

What do you think of the turn and river play here?

Nice having you around again, BTW.