AQs vs. a dealer and a new guy.

[Hass]

CAZ 20/40 Glorious game.

Sb is new to me, I saw him for the first time about a week ago, this is my second session with him. He seems to play well, TAG style, and I haven't seen him get out of line in the past few hours.

UTG+1 is Lisa the dealer, she plays o.k., very aggressive, fairly loose.

Hero raised A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG, Lisa Calls, sb calls, bb calls.

4 to the flop for 2.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

sb checks, bb checks, hero bets, Lisa raises, sb 3-bets, bb folds, HERO????

I'll post my thoughts after a few responses.

[WMB]

Do you know Linda's range here? If its wider than AK-AJ, call and see the turn. I'm not in love with your hand here, but I'm not ready to give up. Sb could have a big Ace as well as a flush draw or possibly a set. My plan would be call the flop, raise a non-diamond turn, fold to 3-bet.

[blackasthma]

You're beat here - dump it now.

[that_pope]

Lisa's raise doesn't alarm me, but a 3 bet does. Being in the SB, his hands here are usually 44, 99, and A9s, heavily leaning toward the sets. I can't remember from my experience, so I can't comment if Lisa raises or cold calls or mixes it up with AK preflop, but fold and get out of teh way for only 1.5 BB. Kind of a sweet deal if you think about it. SB shoulda flat called, made you call another, then put in the check raise on the turn, committing Lisa to the hand.

[rafiki]

well you can absolutely be against A9s/ATs/AJ and a flush draw. Problem is the outs you need to beat A9 are reduced by the flush draw. without reads it's going to be tough getting to the river for anything less then 3bb's only to find out you were 3rd best drawing to second best.

Someone pokerstove us against those ranges snd include 44 and 99. I wonder what we get.

[cgrohman]

My 1st instict is to fold, but I would have to know more about the SB.

[LukeSLTS]

I think I like a cap on the flop here. I think SB could have a hand like 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (though a set seems more likely) and Lisa has AK-AT. If Lisa calls the 4-bet and sb leads the turn I think I fold without help. I just can't lay down AQ in this spot though I am sure I am losing most of the time.

[Captain R]

N.Y.I.H. I'm folding here. I'd probably cap, bet/fold turn and check river.

[tessarji]

For the record, if SB has a set I think he played it terribly.

I cap and probably don't raise again in the hand.

[cowboy billy]

this is a very very tough spot, esp bc you hold AQ

AJ I would dump, AK I would cap, AQ is difficult

I agree that a solid tag shouldn't 3-bet a set in the SB here, but that doesn't mean he can't have one

SB could also have some kind of combo draw, A9s (A4s seems unlikely) for 2 pair, AK (lots of people would NOT 3-bet AK from the SB) and AQ

UTG+1's range I'm not sure about, I just entered a couple of hands that might seem reasonable, OP could probably do a better job there, but we should be more concerned about SB's range anyway and it gives us something to work with

Board: Ad 9h 4d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.782% 15.83% 08.95% 194830 110178.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 58.991% 50.79% 08.20% 625093 100957.00 { 99, 44, A9s+, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 16.228% 15.06% 01.17% 185345 14386.00 { 77-22, AQs-A9s, J9s, T9s, AQo-AJo }

given that we still have ~25% equity I couldn't fold this and would opt for a cap to try and knock out UTG+1, which would increase our equity to ~32% and also would make decisions a little more easy on later streets

Board: Ad 9h 4d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.226% 21.32% 10.91% 5909 3024.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 67.774% 56.87% 10.91% 15763 3024.00 { 99, 44, A9s+, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, AQo+ }

by capping, we would invest 3 small bets into a pot of 15 small bets, assuming UTG+1 will fold and SB will call, thus getting 5:1 odds as a 2:1 dog IP, which is good enough for me

fwiw: if a diamond hits the turn and SB leads out, I'm done with the hand

also, what does NYIH mean?