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  #11  
Old 11-23-2007, 10:41 PM
Route66 Route66 is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that the hand is drawing dead, the only way that it could win would be to catch the remaining 5's/7's.. but how would you count the outs?

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Assuming 2 pair is good for the win, you have to catch 2 of the six remaining 5s and 7s... on the turn there are 47 unseen cards, 6 of which will give you a redraw to 2 pair or trips (41 cards will leave you drawing dead if someone has a pair higher than 7s):

(47 - 41) / 47 = 12.8% or about 6.8 to 1.

Then you have to hit one of the remaining five 7s or 5s on the river out of 46 unseen cards:

(46 - 41) / 46 = 10.9% or about 8.2 to 1.

Now you have to multiply the odds of BOTH of those events happening:

.128 * .109 = 1.4% or about 70 to 1, which makes it worth less than a 1 outer.

You also have a backdoor two gap straight draw that's also worth less than 1 out.
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  #12  
Old 11-23-2007, 11:11 PM
smbruin22 smbruin22 is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

[ QUOTE ]
Odds of flopping 2 pair when you have 2 unpaired cards is close to 50 to 1. Odds of flopping a set (3 of a kind when you have a pocket pair) is approximately 7.5 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, it sure seems to happen alot... usually after i've folded (but i'm not one of those "i had 3-8" guys.... it's just that you notice that flop in particular)
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  #13  
Old 11-23-2007, 11:14 PM
Route66 Route66 is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

[ QUOTE ]

wow, it sure seems to happen alot... usually after i've folded (but i'm not one of those "i had 3-8" guys.... it's just that you notice that flop in particular)

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've folded then the odds of flopping 2 pair drop to around 5 to 1... bizzarre phenomenon.
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  #14  
Old 11-23-2007, 11:17 PM
Small Fry Small Fry is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

[ QUOTE ]
JSmith2007
Thanks for responding.. I’ll try to show you my reasoning and if I’m wrong somewhere please let me know what the correct answer should be. I’m looking at COUNTING OUTS as to what cards would make my hand the “best hand ”. If I’m going about this all the wrong way

Remember this exercise is just to learn how to COUNT OUTS… assume everyone just limps for the below mentioned hands…

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh] six outs: 3 fives 3 sevens The best hand I can make so far is Trip 5’s/7’s… hence 6 outs
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h] 9 outs: but I don’t believe 5 high flush will hold up. With four hearts out, the best hand I can make is 5 high flush

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">You're opponents could easily have a pair of Kings or Jacks or possibly already have two pair. A set cannot be ruled out. I would not count hitting just one 5 or 7 as an out. On the turn you have 9 outs to a flush but as you already mentioned it might not be good.

I would say the best you could do from the flop is to go runner runner, either 5,5 or 7,7. This is probably less than a 5% chance of happening. Just hitting either a 5 or 7 on the turn is about 12% or 7:1 odds. And it still will not be best if a player had pocket jacks or kings. In other words, you cannot make the nuts. </font>

[ QUOTE ]
[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh] 3 outs: 3 aces I have an OVERCARD so the best hand I can make is Trip A’s… hence 3 outs.
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As] two outs: 2 aces. The best hand I can make here is A’s full… hence 2 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">Once again you could be way behind to a hand like A,10 or K,J. Hitting the Ace on the turn is no help, with the exception that it gives you 2 outs on the river. This has about a 5% chance of happening, or odds of about 19:1 (I didn't confirm this number, so I might be off)</font>

[ QUOTE ]
[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh] 5 outs: 2 jacks 3 eights. The best hand I can make is Trip J’s or Pair of 8’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h] 2 outs: 2 jacks… The best hand I can make is Trips J’s… hence two outs

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">I would not count the 8's on the flop. It will not give you the best hand. </font>

[ QUOTE ]
[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh] 5 outs: 2 deuces 3 kings. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s or Pair of K’s… hence 5 outs
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d] 2 outs: 2 deuces. The best hand I can make is Trip 2’s, although I could catch a K on the River, so should TOTAL OUTS still be 5?

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="blue">On the flop there is only one reason I would count the Kings. Because you already hit your 2. This gives you two pair. But as you so aptly demonstrated with your turn card thisis easily counterfitted. The 5 pairing now gives any other player with a king two pair also. So with the queen on the board the best you can do is tie. So on the turn I wouldn't count the kings as full outs. hitting a 2 is also problematic as it gives you a full house, 2's over 5's, but if another player has a 5 he has a better full house, 5's over 2's </font>

When counting outs you want to count cards cards that if you hit them with the next card they most likely give you the best hand. If you need to hit a card on both the turn and river you cannot count this as 1 out. he odds of having to hit a specific range of cards back to back drastically reduces the chance of the event actually happening.
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  #15  
Old 11-23-2007, 11:23 PM
smbruin22 smbruin22 is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

[ QUOTE ]
If you've folded then the odds of flopping 2 pair drop to around 5 to 1... bizzarre phenomenon.

[/ QUOTE ]

marginally related to this, but a big pet peeve of mine is when guys say "i lost with two pair" and one of the pairs was on the board. yes, you had two pair, but everyone in the hand had one...

on a completely serious note, i sometimes still have troubles with paired boards or potential for paired board to kill your "unique" two pair.
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  #16  
Old 11-23-2007, 11:29 PM
smbruin22 smbruin22 is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

had troubles highlighting earlier text.

anyhow, this is like vietnam flashbacks of my early limit "reading book" days... but i thought miller/sklansky (????) considered a back door cover as one out. same with straight draw, although i can't remember the particulars on quality of draw and made flush/straight... but i do remember 1 out for a back door straight (assume a good straight and OE) and 1 out for a back door flush (want it to be 3 flush on board or you hold A or K of the suit).... not sure about this though.
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  #17  
Old 11-24-2007, 12:08 AM
Small Fry Small Fry is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

[ QUOTE ]


on a completely serious note, i sometimes still have troubles with paired boards or potential for paired board to kill your "unique" two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any time there are board cards higher than your "low" pair you're in trouble of being counterfitted.

In the example with K,2 if the flop is K,5,2,. Even though you flopped two pair if a 5 comes on the turn your pair of 2's is no good. a non 2,5,K turn puts another card on the board that could cancel out your 2's. So 3 outs to couterfit on the turn, 6 on the river. And once your counterfitted you'll then be playing the other board card (in this example since the 2 is so low) so your best hope is a tie. Say the final baord is K,5,2,3,3. You now have 2 pair kings and threes with the 5 for a kicker. Any opponent with a K,x where x is higher than 5 beats you.

So it's not only important to realize how you can get counterfitted but what the other board cards are too. These can also effect your hand. Compare the above example with this board - K,5,2,5,Q. You have two pair, kings and 5's with a queen kicker. If another player has K,x, assuming x isn't another 5,2 or queen, it has to be specifically an Ace for you to lose. Before you could lose to a 6,7,8,9,T,J,Q or A
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  #18  
Old 11-24-2007, 12:40 AM
smbruin22 smbruin22 is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

smallfry, thanks.. sexton on wpt is always giving all these cards for a tie or loss on the river and it can frazzle your mind. i've improved alot on these issues though.
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  #19  
Old 11-24-2007, 12:50 AM
Lottery Larry Lottery Larry is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

[ QUOTE ]

[5h 7s]
*** FLOP *** [Kd 3h Jh]
*** TURN *** [Kd 3h Jh] [9h]

[/ QUOTE ]

You pretty much have no outs on either street (you expect to beat a 4h or 2h on the turn?) and probably shouldn't have seen a flop in the first place. There was DEFINATELY no reason to continue after the flop.

[ QUOTE ]

[Ad 2c]
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ks Kh]
*** TURN *** [Jc Ks Kh] [As]

[/ QUOTE ]

Both streets, I doubt your outs were any good. Again, treat as if you had none, since you're most likely playing for half a pot at BEST

[ QUOTE ]
[Jc 8d]
*** FLOP *** [6c Jd Kh]
*** TURN *** [6c Jd Kh] [4h]

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop- Technically 5 outs, but I'd treat as four depending on the players involved.
Turn- 3 outs... unless someone is playing your first hand

[ QUOTE ]
[2h Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2c 5s Qh]
*** TURN *** [2c 5s Qh] [5d]

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop- 5 outs
Turn- Same, unless a raising war breaks out.
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  #20  
Old 11-24-2007, 02:07 AM
smbruin22 smbruin22 is offline
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Default Re: Simple Basic Newbie Question......

wow, that 50 to 1 of hitting two pairs really makes me think about playing out of the small blind, although i'm already pretty tight anyway. and two low pairs have risk of counterfeiting.
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