Fancy play

[MATT111]

ABS 25/50
UTG is 25/0/2 over a couple of hands.
BT is 95/52/2 over 20 hands.


Utg limps. Folds. BT raises. I call in BB with T90.

Flop is T73 rainbow.

Utg checks. Bt bets . I raise. Utg coldcalls. BT calls.

Turn is a K.

I bet. 2 calls.

River is 2.

I check. UTG checks. Bt bets. I raise.

[villafan]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise. Utg coldcalls. I call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is there something wrong in your hand description?

[MATT111]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I raise. Utg coldcalls. I call.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is there something wrong in your hand description?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol. Fixed.

[ST069]

You don't have much informations about these two guys here. If that raise is for value than, IMO a call is way better coz with that flop the only good drawing hand is 89 and than Utg is more likely to have a pair (but the coldcall on the flop can make you think that 89 is precisely his hand). If you have bt beat why do you want Utg to fold a hand that could have call you without that double bet.
If you really think that UTG is on 89 what do you think BT can have bet on the river and fold to a raise? I can't see much hands, maybe: QT, JT, AT even if i think that he probably have checked these ones on the river.

(Excuse my really poor english)
ST69

[MATT111]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't have much informations about these two guys here. If that raise is for value than, IMO a call is way better coz with that flop the only good drawing hand is 89 and than Utg is more likely to have a pair (but the coldcall on the flop can make you think that 89 is precisely his hand). If you have bt beat why do you want Utg to fold a hand that could have call you without that double bet.
If you really think that UTG is on 89 what do you think BT can have bet on the river and fold to a raise? I can't see much hands, maybe: QT, JT, AT even if i think that he probably have checked these ones on the river.

(Excuse my really poor english)
ST69

[/ QUOTE ]


I raise to fold a better tx hand.

[ST069]

I raise to fold a better tx hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really can't imagine that in this spot BT bets the river with a T. If i had to say what i think he holds in this spot i would say AJ or AQ (2overs to see the turn and the K gives him 4 more outs to beat your likely tx) but a pair of kings is always possible (in that case you will be called 100% of the time i think), but i believe that you have BT beat large majority of the time.
To know if UTG can fold AT, QT, JT or 9T to your raise, i really don't know. But you risk only 1 big bet (coz i believe you can't fold here) to have a chance to win 10big bets in the case he holds the 4 Ts that have you beat IF he can fold them in this situation. It's risky but if you have a good read on BOTH players and your gut tells you to pop it i really can't blame you.
NH ^^

(i suck hard with the "quote" option [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

[MATT111]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise to fold a better tx hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really can't imagine that in this spot BT bets the river with a T.



[/ QUOTE ]

BT has nothing. We want to fold an UTG T.


[ QUOTE ]
but a pair of kings is always possible

[/ QUOTE ]

BT would have raised the turn with a king close to 101% of the time.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

Since I believe you will have the BTN beat close to 100% of the time, I see nothing wrong with your river checkraise given that you checked the river. In fact I would go as far as saying that checkraising in this spot should be standard.

[villafan]

Button is a crazy maniac, so I would not worry about him, other than expect that he often will call the raise with a worse hand (maybe even raise it), so thats adds value to a raise.

The question, as I see it, is what hand does a player that never raise pre flop, but put money in the pot 25% of the hands, limp UTG with? I would think 25% players would play pairs and decent paint cards.

Given the fact that UTG just calls your raise, even when he knows there is a profitable maniac in the pot, makes me believe that he is seeking a showdown with a medium pair. With an AF at 2, he clearly uses the fold/raise buttons post flop with an ok frequency, thus suggesting he would raise good hands to extract more from the maniac and to fold out any overcards you may have.

The turn action adds support to the idea that he wants a cheap showdown.

If there is a huge chance that the maniac calls your river raise, then at worst your river raise produce the same amount of bets into the pot as if you just call and then get UTG to call behind.

But if UTG folds 88 here when he is faced with two bets, I also see a big possibility that he also would fold a hand like 10J. (he have to call two bets to win 13 bets, and how big difference is the 88 vs 10J with the action you have shown and the unusual pre flop passiveness that he has shown).

And if he calls with 10J, I would think he also would call with a hand like 88 or 99, and 108 (though I have ruled that hand out do to the pre flop play).

So I like the raise, I think it maximise your wins.


Does my thought process makes sense?

[Adam Stewart]

Betting the river is the better play. (pun intended?)


By checking-raising the river:

First, you must count on someone betting the river ... namely the maniac. Now, this guy may be a maniac, but he's just been given the chance of a free showdown vs betting into *two* other opponents.

I agree that he doesn't have a king (otherwise, he'd have raised the turn). However, he may have have a paired Ten with better kicker.

More importantly, though, by check-raising the river, you're very likely pushing the the tight/passive UTG out of the pot. So most of the time, you're putting in two of your own bets here for a chance to win 2 of the Button's bet.

And again, this is only when Button actually bets this river, and you have him beat.


If you just bet the river:

The passive button will likley call, and so too may the Button. Thus you're only risking ONE bet to gain TWO bets.


I realize these aren't the only scnenarios that can occur. For instance, UTG may bet if checked to, or Button may raise you if you lead the river. ... but I feel the above scenarios that I actually covered are by far the most likely.


Adam