400: QQ Flop Multiway

[QTip]

Villain is vdl07 whom I only have stats for reads at 41/4/1.3. The players behind me are a bunch of tags.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($236)
BB ($981.40)
UTG ($357.40)
UTG+1 ($396)
Hero ($346.10)
MP2 ($394)
MP3 ($833.70)
CO ($1145.65)
Button ($414.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $4, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, MP2 calls $20, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $20, SB calls $18, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $16.

Flop: ($104) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $80</font>, Hero ?

If I call here, the pot will be UTG's remaining stack...assuming everyone else folds.

[Berge20]

What's your image?

[QTip]

Nitty I'm sure, but I'm not sure UTG considers that.

[AlexB182]

This looks like a set on the first look, but I think the range of a 41/4/1.3 could be much wider here, like betting out with a smaller overpair (77 maybe for overpair + gut shot) or even a NFD. What do you think of this range?

12,173,264 games 8.500 secs 1,432,148 games/sec

Board: 6h 5s 3h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.848% 65.82% 01.03% 8012039 125487.00 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 33.152% 32.12% 01.03% 3910251 125487.00 { 99-22, ATs-A2s, 87s }

Can't see one of the TAGs behind you entering the pot BTW, this flop shouldn't have hit them, right? Sucks balls if there is still a set waiting to act behind you..

[PenguinExpress]

Ugh, this is such an awkward spot. I never know what to do here. I think I either would flat call and risk pricing in players behind me or make a very small raise (this may be a legitimate spot for a min-raise?), and fold if any of the TAGS behind me push but call if UTG pushes.

[GrandMelon]

I hate it but I fold

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate it but I fold

[/ QUOTE ]
same

[Mr_Donktastic]

[ QUOTE ]
I hate it but I fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[vaughn345]

Calling or minraising are clearly the worst things you can do, it’s shove or fold.

Before doing the math I would have always folded here and somewhat hated it, but it actually looks like a shove to me:

Assumptions: UTG will call shove with their entire range, tags will fold all draws to a shove from us, SB is check-raising (or check-calling shove) with vulnerable made hand 1/3 of the time they hit and no one just called with AA or KK preflop (might be wrong assumption I have never played 2/4 before).

So individually tags behind crush us (90% favorite) each 1/8 times (hitting set with PP or 2 pair/combo draw/straight/set with suited connectors), UTG beats us 33% of the time (from alex’s range), and SB crushes us (90% favorite) 1/8 of the time

=&gt; 100% * [(1-(0.9)*(1/8))^2*(1-(0.9)*(1/3)(1/8))] = .758% equity against non UTG players and 66% equity against UTG.
=&gt; 50% equity overall.

Taking into account the fact that UTG is probably not calling a shove with their entire range, there is considerable dead money in the pot, and one of the TAGs might not have played their hand perfectly, doesn’t this have to be a shove?