folding a set?

[enkel1]

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That's a pretty narrow raising range to put a villian you have never seen before on. IMHO, villian would have to be super-tight to have that stringent a raising range in MP. I can see an unknown villian making the initial raise with other hands that he might play the same way, like QJs. Perhaps he would even play it that way with AKs with one of his suit on board.

You need about 22% equity in order to call. If opponent has JJ+,AQs,QJs then Pokerstove shows your equity to be 66.5%. Even if we restrict it to only JJ+ your equity is still 60%. That's because AA and KK are more likely than JJ and QQ since a Q and a Jack is visible. Even if we restrict to only AA,QQ, and JJ, we still get an equity for you of 47%.

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To the OP:

download pokerstove and get comfortable using it. Your thought process is essentially correct, but your conclusions are flawed because you do not have the quantitative analysis (the numbers) correct. In your overly simplified 75% JJ/QQ, 25% AA/KK, you STILL have the equity to call and this range is too tight for no read & this early in the tournament.

As I said earlier, not going broke to a larger set is a mistake. You cannot be that certain in this situation.

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I think there is a story in ace on the river, where Barry is playing TD 2-7, and gets paid of when he has nuts against second nuts. And the guy says something like "thats incridible, do you know the odds for you holding that hand?." And Barry answers: "yes, it was 100%". (since he wouldnt have played any other hand in that way)

Lets say me oversimplified 75% JJ,QQ 25% KK+, is that kind of percentage ("gut-feeling"-percentage). Is there a good way to combine it with the range of {AQ, JJ+, JQ, KT, AK} to get a mixed gut-feeling/math-equity?