NFD+Gutshot too aggro ?

[atti]

no real reads. but he seems to be passive

Everest Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50/$1 (HH Converter by Kreatief)

BB (104.50)
MP2 (109.40) (Hero)
MP3 (115.15)
CO (101.50)
Button (117.90)
SB (78.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4.00</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, CO calls $4.00, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, SB calls $3.50, BB calls $3.00,

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( $16 )
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10.00</font>, CO calls $10.00, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $56.00</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises All-In $105.40</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, SB calls All-In $18.90,

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( $185.8 )


River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( $185.8 )

[ebalf]

Your RRAI won't push him off the hand since he's got only a small amount to call.
So basically it's about showdown percentages.
His reraise tells me he's got a made hand or a very strong draw.
Since you got the NFD the best draw he might have is sth like J9s/98s/87s.
Not very likely that he pushes with those hands.
More likely: two pair or a set. Since he called a 4BB-bet a pocket pair and thus a set is more likely than KTs/K6s/T6s.
So basically you'll very often see a set.

What are your chances to beat a set?
9 outs for a flush and 3 outs for the straight (J spades only once).
12 outs. rule of 4 --&gt; 48 outs.
discount his outs for a paired board.

Call/RRAI is good.
Fold would have been bad IMHO.

I would have called. If he doesn't bet the turn you save 18.90 if you don't hit your straight/flush.
Don't think he'd lay down his set after a spade comes.