"Material Girls" Movie: A Sure-Fire Box Office Flop

[llabb]

Hello all, I've been away from the forums for a couple weeks due to family circumstances. Back to movie betting this week. Time to start with a softball, a movie that probably many haven't even heard of, Material Girls. No, it has nothing to do with Madonna, although the star, Hilary Duff, would love to have a career even a quarter as successful as hers. Long analysis below, Cliff Notes on bottom.

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Material Girls is virtually a sure-fire box office flop by movie standards. The question is how much of a flop will it be, for betting purposes.

Background:

Hilary Duff stars in this movie, along with her lesser known sister Haylie. Duff's career has faded fast, going from a popular teen draw in Lizzie McGuire, to an average teen rom-com in Cinderella Story, to a string of flops afterwards.

The best comparison for this movie is the Duff solo vehicle, Raise Your Voice. After being in several moderately successful movies, and having a built-in teen fanbase from television and singing, Duff attempted to carry this movie centered around her music aspirations. It should have been her 8 Mile, and instead, flopped its way to a $4 million opening even though it was in more than 2,500 theaters. It carried a horrible opening PTA of less than $1,600, and ended up making only $10 mil total vs a $15 mil budget.

In her next attempt, producers tried to pair her with Heather Locklear in a PG rom-com for teens and families. This should have been a wider draw, with popular adult actors (pairing Locklear with Chris Noth of Sex and the City) expanding the audience. But this failed as well, opening to $5.4 mil in 2,087 theaters with a $2,540 PTA.

Other comparisons can be made to similar tweener movies which have failed, despite even more popular actresses. The billionaire Olsen twins, despite their enormous fanbase, flopped in New York Minute with a PTA under $2,000 and and opening of $5.96 mil due only to the very large 3,000 theater count (due to formerly high expectations).

July tweener movie Sleepover with Alexa Vega, of the enormously popular Spy Kids franchise, flopped to a similar sub-$1,900 PTA, opening to $4.17 mil in 2,200 theaters.

The formerly popular Lindsay Lohan flopped earlier this year as well in Just My Luck, with a $2,200 PTA for a $5.69 mil opening in a wide 2,500 theaters.

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Wagering Analysis:

Pinny line for Material Girls:
Over 4.5 million +164
Under 4.5 million -180

As seen earlier, some of the above movies clear the $4.5 mil line for Material Girls, but the key is PTA's. The above movies that hit $5-6 mil were expected to be successes perhaps hitting double digits, with theater counts from 2,500-3,000.

The studio distributing this movie, MGM, knows this thing sucks and is dumping it in 1,500 theaters according to current information. It is also reported that there has also been almost very little marketing. This would lead me to guess a $1,500 PTA or so, with a $2,000 PTA being the likely upper limit. Even if wrong, it's difficult to see how it could possibly get the $3,000 PTA needed to hit the $4.5 mil line, or even the $2,667 PTA needed to hit a lower $4.0 mil line.

My expectation is $2-3 million, towards the lower end of the range, perhaps $2.25 million.

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Conclusion: Bet Under 4.5 million up to -300, Bet Under 4.0 million up to -200. I have taken bets on the Under 4.5 at -180.

3* Material Girls Under 4.5 million

YTD movie record: 8-3 ; weighted record: 20-6 ; +1 bajillion units

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Cliff Notes: Bet Material Girls Under virtually any posted line.

[Thremp]

1.645 mil opening day.


SoaP is busto though.

[Army Eye]

4.5 mil was a hell of a line for this one.


The over comes in by a teeny bit

[JJ Jampolsky]

I'm really not impressed at all by peoples ability to cap movie lines. it seems very doable and comparatively luck-free compared to sports. it seems like someone who has just taken a couple statistics classes and maybe some pollster/survey knowledge would be able to hit these at damn near 95%. ill give it a shot when i get some free time this week and can do some research. may have to wait till shomer shabbas, though.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really not impressed at all by peoples ability to cap movie lines.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, um, you tell 'em, I guess.

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[cthomer5000]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really not impressed at all by peoples ability to cap movie lines. it seems very doable and comparatively luck-free compared to sports. it seems like someone who has just taken a couple statistics classes and maybe some pollster/survey knowledge would be able to hit these at damn near 95%. ill give it a shot when i get some free time this week and can do some research. may have to wait till shomer shabbas, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never bet a movie line, but Ive been following them extremely closele for 25 weeks now. I love Idlewild (the OutKast movie) over 6 million for this week. 6 movies made over 6 million last weekend, and this is a movie in an opening week against some relatively week competition. I'll need to check the theater count, but as long as this is in wide release, i think it clears 6 million without a problem. The last two movies I would compare it to (im going to go with "black" pop culture movies here) made over 9 (Waist Deep) and 12 (Get Rich Or Die Tryin) million in there opening weekends.

I also think 15 million for Invincible is a tad high, but that should be a much closer outcome. Idlewild I honestly think makes 8 million or more, so I see 6 as a damn near certainty (again, unless i find out beforehand that we're talking a pretty low theatre count).

This is my first shot at this... so we'll see if I've got a clue come Monday.