pocket Qs - all-in or fold ?

[DickieBets]

No reads on opponent. Is folding too nitty or the right thing to do ? How does one go about evaluating a hand like this ?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $25
BB: $25.70
UTG: $25.35
Hero (MP): $24.65
CO: $63.95
BTN: $33

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $3.75, <font color="red">UTG raises to $25.35 and is All-In</font>, Hero ????

[Berky]

fold.He is utg, so his range is alot tighter. Ok sometimes he has AK here but most times he's got you crushed.

[Pokey]

He raises UTG, then four-bets all-in. Without a read, I'm calling that AK, JJ+. Against that range you're way ahead of six combos, tied with seventeen, and way behind twelve. That makes this a -EV call.

Once you get a read on villain you will hopefully get a better idea of what his range looks like; at that point, you might find calling this push +EV. At $25NL I'd find that to be an unusual opponent; at $100NL it becomes more likely.

[MAA]

I definately fold here because I think I will be only showed AA or KK or sometimes AK here.

[Xexilla]

Hes bought in full so prob not a complete muppet I think I am often passing here readless to be honest. whether its correct is another matter... I think it also depends on your bankroll?? he could have AK here or getting overexcited with a pair of Jacks.. and he might be tilting but without knowing that I think ur often beat here but I also think if he has KK-AA hes not playing very well.

[Xexilla]

yeh exactly what Pokey says... but also Pokey don't u hate this play by Aces or Kings? its not too bad with AK becuz u might get 1010 to QQ to fold.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
yeh exactly what Pokey says... but also Pokey don't u hate this play by Aces or Kings? its not too bad with AK becuz u might get 1010 to QQ to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this play VERY much with AK for four main reasons:

1. Hero could make a huge mistake and fold a pocket pair. ANY pocket pair. Against AK, even 22 has an advantage, but 22 cannot possibly call a push here.

2. AK has great up-and-down value, but only hits the flop about 1/3rd of the time. You need to see five cards to get maximum value out of AK, especially OOP against a three-bettor. I'd MUCH rather flip coins with an overlay than have to play AK OOP in a three-bet pot where my opponent was the one who three-bet.

3. Don't forget BB -- he's already chipped in 16xBB on this hand, and that has made the pot VERY tasty. It's worth even the small chance that we fold out the crowd here.

4. AK doesn't fear anything except AA and KK. Given that we hold AK, both AA and KK become 50% less likely than usual (three combos each instead of six). With even a slight chance of winning 32 BBs dead, it's worth rolling the dice.

This is a classic "squeeze play," putting Hero in a horrendous decision since he won't know what BB does before he acts, and putting enormous pressure on BB who doesn't seem to like his hand enough to raise. If I were UTG with AK, I'd be four-bet pushing here every time.

Now: with KK and AA, this is still an excellent play in my opinion. Why? Well, because most opponents are not as clever as OP here. The THOUGHT of folding QQ doesn't cross their minds in this situation -- they just dump all their cash in the middle. Most villains are willing to call a push here with JJ+ and with AK, and against that range we absolutely CRUSH. Also, the pot already has a massive 36 BBs in it. That's over one-third of a stack! Picking that up without a fight is a MAJOR coup. Check your winrates for KK and AA in PokerTracker -- if you've got a good-sized database you'll probably find them hovering at somwhere between 10 and 20 BBs per hand. This is a better-than-average result with 100% certainty if your opponents fold, and it's a MAJOR score if either opponent calls. Obviously, if they BOTH call it's an absolute red-letter banner day.

In short, the pot has gotten too big NOT to try to win it outright with any hand, even one as strong as rockets. It has also gotten large enough to entice villains to make stupid mistakes with weaker-than-usual hands, and those are calls that put even more money in our pockets. I'm going for the gusto and pushing with KK, AA, and AK every time in this situation.

[Xexilla]

Fascinating read thank you pokey and all taken onboard... do u have msn at all?? I won't bug u regularly just useful to hear ur opinion I am currently being staked a starting bankroll for 50NL and trying to build up was a good 1st session today [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[guitarizt]

Excellent post as usual pokey. I like shoving KK+ there because if you just reraise it makes it so obvious you have aces, and I like shoving with AK against bad players who will call a reraise. I alternate between shoving and reraising depending on the situation. I do whichever I think will have the most fold equity.

[fjbourne]

nice post pokey.