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Old 08-08-2006, 11:03 AM
kurtkatt kurtkatt is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 509
Default +ev with marginal hand

Full tilt 6k grrt buy-in 24.2

8-handed , 16 left. average around 50k
blinds 2000/4000 ante 250?

relevant stacks

utg 80k
mp2 75k
co 12k
me 47k

Utg minraise to 8000
mp2 calls
co pushes for 4000 more
me pushes for 35 0000 more with KQo

Reads: i´ve been playing with utg the entire tourney almost and he have so far folded everytime against resistance when he minraise utg. seems to be minraising small pairs, AT-AJ, KT-KQ, probably some others to, he minraises light EP and from what ive seen he doesnt do it with big hands. so im positive he is going to fold.

mp2, weak player. have played with him for quite some time and he seems to be playing a lot of crap. But he makes loose calls to so i think he might call me although i dont think im very often ´sorry he calls...

co, don´t know much about him, but my guess is he takes the first ok hand he gets. Say aces, maybe high to semihigh suited connectors expecting to go fourhanded.

my thinking, utg will fold, mp2 might call but i think i´ll be ahead or not far behind (small pp) if he calls. Might be a 40/60 against co but with the overlay (there is 36k in the pot before me) im happy to take that shot

what do u think?
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  #2  
Old 08-08-2006, 11:19 AM
Dunkman Dunkman is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Bubbling FTs
Posts: 2,584
Default Re: +ev with marginal hand

I'd wait for a better spot...I realize there's a lot of dead money if you can fold those guys out, but the chances that someone has a real hand is pretty high...and you don't.
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