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#41
08-09-2007, 08:06 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
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[ QUOTE ] For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA. [/ QUOTE ] Please, let's not compare Rick Ankiel to the actual god of hitting. That's quite unfair. [/ QUOTE ] Has there actually ever been a better Major League hitter than Cust? 
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#42
08-09-2007, 08:11 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
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JoA did a regression analysis on it, as have others. It's around 1.8. Anyway, I look forward to seeing Ankiel on a field again. [/ QUOTE ] What were the variables?
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#43
08-09-2007, 08:20 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA. [/ QUOTE ] Please, let's not compare Rick Ankiel to the actual god of hitting. That's quite unfair. [/ QUOTE ] Has there actually ever been a better Major League hitter than Cust? [/ QUOTE ] There's this guy named Barry Bonds, but he's black, so it obviously doesn't count.
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#44
08-09-2007, 08:21 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
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[ QUOTE ] JoA did a regression analysis on it, as have others. It's around 1.8. Anyway, I look forward to seeing Ankiel on a field again. [/ QUOTE ] What were the variables? [/ QUOTE ] Hell if I know. I like to use 2.0 as an easy coefficient.
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#45
08-09-2007, 08:21 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The perfect Hollywood ending involves the Cards running out of pitchers in a big game and turning to Ankiel in extra innings. [/ QUOTE ] TLR: Ankiel, you're the only man we got...we need you now more than ever! Ankiel: Tony! My arm is shot! Didn't you read the reports? Kid with cancer: *cough* *cough* Ankiel, shucks if you don't go out there and pitch I don't think I'll make it. Ankiel: Alright kid, Ima gonna go in there and give it all I got! [/ QUOTE ] Then Ankiel throws a wild pitch but covers the plate just in time to stop the run from scoring. [/ QUOTE ] That sequence would take about 15 of the movie. Him diving to the plate to get the last out. Very moving stuff.
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#47
08-09-2007, 08:55 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA. [/ QUOTE ] Please, let's not compare Rick Ankiel to the actual god of hitting. That's quite unfair. [/ QUOTE ] Has there actually ever been a better Major League hitter than Cust? [/ QUOTE ] There's this guy named Barry Bonds, but he's black, so it obviously doesn't count. [/ QUOTE ] Major League, not National League. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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#48
08-09-2007, 08:55 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
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#49
08-09-2007, 09:05 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
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I really hope he is successful. He was such a bright star as a young pitcher it was painful to watch him fall apart like that. I, for one, hope he finds a lot of success. [/ QUOTE ]
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#50
08-09-2007, 09:10 PM
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Re: Cards call up Ankiel
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[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] sure his OBP sucks, but a guy who a .270/.316/.570 guy has good value [/ QUOTE ] But that's AAA numbers. What's the expected translation to the majors? If it's a 10% reduction he'd be .243/.285/.523. That provides what looks like a decent OPS (.808), except that OBP is probably worth 3x SLG. So his EQA is likely to be below league average. That's not good for a corner outfielder who struggles defensively. For comparison, Jack Cust is .263/.402/.521 this year in the Majors. Last year he was .293/.467/.549 in AAA. And if his hitting ever falls off he could never play the outfield for anyone. As soon as Piazza is moved Cust is a full time DH. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not positive, but from what I have read about sabermetrics, this is way off. [/ QUOTE ] In Moneyball IIRC Paul Depodesta said he thought it was worth 3x by his analysis. Let's assume Kyleb is right and it's 1.8x. If Ankiels OBP is 20% below league average, his SLG has to be something like 36% better than league average (NL average SLG .414) to make him just an average hitter. I think his SLG would have to be north of .550 just to make him an average hitter. And a league average hitter in a corner outfield position is a below average hitting outfielder. A below average hitting outfielder who makes tons of errors wouldn't be useful.
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