Would You Try It? Live Shenanigans (long rambling post)

[Better Than U]

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I just got back from 2 weeks in Vegas, and the games there played differently from how I expected. There's no question that they're extremely good, but I feel that to beat them for the max, one would have to be willing to make some VERY big bluffs. I didn't 2nd-barrel very often, which is normal for me, but I think I should've. Furthermore, I think I lost some pretty big pots because I didn't fire a THIRD barrel; people seemed to often call me with pretty weak pairs on the flop, and occasionally on the turn, but I just don't think they have the guts to call a pot bet on the river with that hand, most of the time. I didn't fire many 3rd barrels that I can remember (I very rarely do), as I said, and the times I did, I pretty much always had it, and didn't get paid off. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, though; I'm not sure.

I saw a fair number of players who seemed to have the 2p2 pedigree, and basically all of them seemed content to play slightly LAG, and not get way out of line. For example, they opened a lot, and would make some of the obvious "big-draw overbet pushes," but there was very little restealing going on pre-flop, and virtually no attempts to move an opponent off of anything more than top pair. I didn't play any 25-50, so I'm talking about 10-20 and 5-10 here, both of which tended to play quite deep (300-500BBs commonly). This style obviously does well, but I'm talking about winning the max for the game.

For example: Here's a pot that developed between a weak but not terrible player, and a pretty good player, that I witnessed, which got me thinking about this. The weak player (Villain) was typical for 5/10: he was very straightforward. Every time he'd made the stone-cold nuts, he'd pretty quickly shoved all of his chips in, a couple of times for 2x overbets. He was tightish, but called too much off with top or 2nd pair on the flop, and with dominated hands pre-flop. However, he was VERY timid when facing big bets, often seeming to irrationally fear the nuts.

OK, so he has just won a monster pot, where he'd opened with JTs, and a huge fish had slowplayed AA that made top set in a big multiway pot, until Villain made the nut straight, and they got 1800 in 3 ways with another player's flush draw on the turn. Villain had scooped this monster, and was about to quit; he had mentioned that he was flying home to St. Louis in the morning. As he finished out the round, though, he picked up several more good hands, and won 2 more decent pots.

Then, on ostensibly his last hand of his trip, he raised to 30 UTG--a standard raise for him. A good player (Hero in this story) who roughly covered his 6K in chips called in EP, and maybe one other player called. The flop was Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and Villain led out for 80, looking strong IMO. Hero raised to 200. Folded back to Villain, who jacks it 400 more (600 total). At this point, I'd put him squarely on a set, QJs, or AA/KK; no way he reraises the flop with AQ, and I kind of doubt he'd do it with KK. Hero then surprised me by calling, after thinking for a while. I put him on a pretty big hand, too, or of course, a draw.

The turn is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and now Villain swells up in his chair a little bit, looking even stronger, and bets out 800 into a pot of about 1300. I put him pretty much on AAA. Hero thinks a while again, and calls. I think he has a very good hand like a set, or QJ/AQ, which makes it harder for him to put Villain on a set, and is having trouble folding it. Just to be clear, I made numerous bad calls on this trip, but QJ would go into the muck in a heartbeat if I was in Hero's spot.

The river is a small [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and now Villain hesitates slightly before betting 400 into the 2900 pot. This is an obvious blocking bet IMO, which I'm pretty much positive he wouldn't make without a set (he'd just c/c AQ). Hero now goes into the tank FOREVER (I eventually called the clock on him, and he called me an "Osshole" in his British accent [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

So, like I said: Hero has a big hand that appears to be no good--a set, or maybe two pair. A straight or a flush is out of the question for his uber-straightforward opponent, but very realistic for him, from his opponent's point of view.

Would you ever bluff here, knowing that your fairly bad opponent likely has top set? You have about 4K to raise him. FWIW, I'm sure this guy was not considering bluffing; he eventually folded his hand. I saw a J in it, and he swore he didn't have a set, so QJ is all that makes any sense to me. What about with a set? Still bluff, or just make the obvious call, getting 8:1?

I would've bluffed all of my chips here for sure on the river, if I'd somehow gotten to that point, even with a set of Jacks. But, that's not necessarily a good thing; it's probably very wrong. Anyway, I know many of you have played in these games lately, and I'm curious if you ever try/see things like this.

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doesnt seem very close at all. put it in.

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[luckyjimm]

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God I hate people who QUOTE THE ENTIRE POST IN THEIR REPLY FOR NO REASON, other than because they pressed the quote button instead of reply button.

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QFMFT

[cero_z]

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from my experience playing live 5-10nl, if you want to bluff, use the flush cards. from my other experiences at live 5-10nl don't try to bluff someone off a set of aces when you know they have it.

in this situation, i don't think it is obvious that villain has a set of aces. i think it is much more likely that hero has 2 pair or a smaller set. i don't mind a big raise here at all. it's a winning play against the player and the situation that is described here.

(you really set this up for a push to be right though. weak player, about to leave, always thinks his opponent has the nuts) obviously if all that is true we have to push here.

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It IS obvious that the weak player in the hand has a set. The only other possibility is As and Qs, and that is a distant possibility, because of the flop play.

I "set it up to be a push" because this was a spot where all of the factors needed for the guy to fold a good hand seemed to be present, and yet, it still seems very dangerous to try to bluff a bad player off of top set. I know that the general plan when for a tough internet player coming into these passive games is to run it over; I'm asking if you'll take it this far. Luego says it's not close; that's what I'm asking. Do others agree or disagree?

These situations are worth so many BBs if you play them correctly that IMO they're worth talking about. How far do you take it? Let's say that you KNOW he has AAA, QQQ, or JJJ when he bets the turn. Would you call that bet on the turn with air, knowing that there are 13 cards that put a 3-flush or a 4-straight on the board (without pairing the board)?

Also, FWIW, I wouldn't try to rep the straight on the turn, because a bad player needs to muster so much psychological strength to fold a set in the first place, I think adding the fact that he'd have 10 outs if he was behind would make folding impossible for him.

Thanks for all the comments so far, and feel free to add whatever.

[KRANTZ]

cero, definitely shove. he's leaving, you think he wants to explain to his friends/girlfriend/whoever that he was up huge and then lost it all on the last hand? or want to deal with it himself? he'll see the board, look down at his stack and still see enough money behind where he can walk away a "winner", and fold (and i don't think he'll be that reluctant, either).

[Matt Flynn]

nuts: The title says "long rambling post." If you don't like it, don't click.

Cero: Do you think shoving is better than raising 3,000?

[cero_z]

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nuts: The title says "long rambling post." If you don't like it, don't click.

Cero: Do you think shoving is better than raising 3,000?

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It's a tough balance between 3000 being "as scary" as 4000 in general, and mimicking exactly how he (Villain) would play the nuts. If I bluffed, I'd shove all my chips in within 5 seconds of his blocking bet, just like he would do if he hit the nuts.

[igetbadbeat]

"Should I bluff the player that folds to bluffs?"

yes...

If he doesn't fold then youpegged him wrong in the post and in real life. If he did, good job nh

[afadeyi]

tl; dr

[DeathDonkey]

Hi Cero,

Does the fact that villain probably holds the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] make a shove look better or worse? I would think worse because he would know hero cannot have the nuts, so a big shove that could be the nuts or nothing is looking a lot like nothing.

-DeathDonkey

[ata]

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tl; dr

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Ban.