$109 Re-steal opportunity?

[Newbie236]

UB $109 Turbo 75/150. Villain on the button is new to me but active at the table (42.31/26.92/1.67).

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t3000)
SB (t1075)
Newbie (t2545)
UTG (t1040)
MP1 (t3065)
MP2 (t3355)
CO (t920)

Preflop: Newbie is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t525</font>

Should I be shoving or passing here?

[vers]

27% is sooo huge and you're ahead of his range. Also since he's opening the button, his stats are massive. I like shoving here and even if called I think you're still ahead enough of the time here to make it profitable. Looks like a great spot to me (though I play $60s and under), I could be wrong if the play at this level is vastly different.

[apple11]

I don't play this level but I think you are just crushing this guys range and should shove

[Little John]

42/26 is super lag. i push preflop.

[Q..]

I also guess hes open button raise here is like 45%+ so its huge +ev

[Newbie236]

Thanks for the input. During a hand, with a chance to increase my stack by 30%, it feels like a no-brain push. I've had a few of these moves consecutively bite me in the butt so I decided to run some numbers. Any comments on my assumptions etc. would be much appreciated.

Instead of relying on the few dozen hands worth of reads I had on the villain, let's dial back his apparent looseness and make some assumptions for typical players. Typical is subjective and some players may raise the button here with any two but let's be a bit more conservative.

Suppose the villain here will raise with the top 30% of hands but only call my all-in with the top 5% (TT+, AKs, AK, AQs, AQ). Seems reasonable to me but tell me if I'm on crack.

In that case, with the help of PokerStove (new to me)...

5/30 - villain calls and we lose (70%), -t2545
5/30 - villain calls and we win (30%), +2770
25/30 - villain folds we take pot, +t750

(5/30)*(70%)*(-t2545)= -t297
(5/30)*(30%)*(t2770)= t139
(25/30)*(t750)= t625
EV = t467

Seems like a push but here are my questions.

Are the above assumptions reasonable?
If so, if you have an 83% chance of a fold to add 30% to your stack, is that a good gamble?
In 4th place (very alive) with 7 players remaining, do you take a 12% chance of going broke or wait for a better spot?

These are the questions that keep me up at night...