mo' outs, mo' problems - 200nl

[keikiwai]

ok, feel free to berate me on every street

i called pf hoping to induce call behinds (not agg table, so not afraid of squeeze)

i raise the flop expecting folds usually, i get called, and on the turn i pick up 3 more outs.....

now if we assume villain is ahead... say w/ an overpair, then my equity just went down, since on the flop i have 9+9=18 outs till the river, but on the turn i only have 9+3=12 outs (ignoring boats, trips, and villain's 2 outer)

but the pot is bigger, so should i push w/ my 24% equity, or just check behind? i really don't need folds very often to break even...... but villain is getting 1:2 so he's not folding very often (ever?) after calling the flop

check behind or push the turn?

what if turn were 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?

villain is taggy, no reads:

Poker Stars
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $343.70
BB: $107.55
UTG: $204.85
keikiwai (MP): $217.85
CO: $202.00
BTN: $197.00

Preflop: keikiwai is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $8.00</font>, keikiwai calls $8.00, 2 folds, SB calls $7.00, BB calls $6.00

Flop: ($32) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $20.00</font>, <font color="red">keikiwai raises to $66.00</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $46.00

Turn: ($164) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">keikiwai????</font>

Villain has $131 left

[Etats360]

free card please.

[Jingleheimer]

Push, the paired flop might lead him to be calling you a little light, suspecting you of a move. You can fold out all club overs with a push, these guys would stack you if you hit. Probably not folding any high pairs, but there are a lot fewer of them. You only need to fold him out 20% of the time for this to be +EV.

[djj6835]

I would need some sort of read here to bet. Until proven otherwise, I assume villain isn't folding any overpair here ever.

[dragonystic]

i like shoving
i like checking

if you shove it will probably convince him you have the 7. whereas, checking might make it a bit more obvious if you hit your draw (unless you hit the 9)

i also think your fold equity is higher than you realize here. youve played it very strong on the flop. and a shove here would pretty much look precisely like a 7 imo. plenty of villains fold overpairs here *gasp* im not saying this villain would, but they do sometimes.

plus you never know what other garbage he might be holding. he could be on a draw himself, or have been stubborn on the flop with 88/99.

still, a free card is nice.

[thedustbustr]

i'd float the flop i think, its a little too blank and when called you dont know if he can fold an overpair. then you can raise the turn all in or something.

[SharpObject]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd float the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[gimmetheloot]

pf is fine once in a while. id fold the flop though.

[kash munni]

-push

[TianYuan]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd float the flop i think, its a little too blank and when called you dont know if he can fold an overpair. then you can raise the turn all in or something.

[/ QUOTE ]
If we don't know if he can fold an overpair, and therefore don't raise on flop, why would we want to raise on turn?