$11 Bubble 34o facing all-in

[kbinder]

Hey everyone,

I've been a long-time reader of the site. I just started playing online poker last weekend, and I have been facing what I believe to be some tough decisions on the bubble.

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t1890)
Button (t60)
SB (t5500)
Hero (t550)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t800</font>

I folded this, believing that I would prefer a random hand (the next hand) over 34. If I survive, I have 3rd place locked up. Thoughts?

[bigballz]

Don't fold because 34 is worse that J10, fold because you should cash.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold because 34 is worse that J10, fold because you should cash.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say this? Hero is all in for 150 chips in the sb next hand. The other short stack is in the CO.

IMO the really short stack is in better shape than the hero. Hero is forced all in before the guy with 60 chips.

I think hero needs to also consider the chances of getting whatever hand he has next HU. IF the large stack has been playing a lot of hands there is a decent chance hero needs to win a three way pot with some random hand. I would much rather play a larger HU pot here than a smaller three way pot next hand.

[Shillx]

If you call here, you will bust about 2/3 of the time. If you make the $$$ everytime you win here, you will get ITM just 35% of the time.

If you fold, you will win your next hand say 50% of the time. But even if you do win that pot, you will still go broke some of the time. So if you get all-in when he is in the BB, you will go broke 1/6 of the time in a 3-way pot. Going broke 1/6 of the time after you survive the next hand is a reasonable assumption IMO. So you will end up busting 1/2 + 1/12 = ~58% of the time and getting ITM ~42% of the time. This is better then making it in 33% of the time.

If you have 25% of the pool on average when you double up this hand (about what you will have) and 20% of the pool when you double up next hand, it is close

By playing now, you have .25*.35 = 8.8% equity and by waiting you have .2*.42 = 8.4% equity. The problem is that you will oftentimes have to play against 2 hands on the next deal. So instead of doubling up 50% of the time, you will oftentimes triple up just 33% of the time. Since tripling up does nothing for your equity and you just want to survive, it turns a close decision into a clear call.