Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?

jcx · #1 03-28-2006, 12:23 PM

Trying to determine if I made the correct play. Button has been tight and aggressive. Comments appreciated.

Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
7 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, CO folds, Button raises to $9, SB folds, Hero calls $7, MP1 folds.

I did not raise here as my Aces are not particularly strong (I have button covered, but his stack is not short). The hand is certainly worth taking a flop with, but I want to be able to dump it if it comes down bad.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Button bets $19.95, Hero raises to $79.8, Button calls $59.85.

Thinking the button might have the other 2 Aces and is making a continuation bet, I checkraise w/ top 2 on this fairly coordinated board. Reasonable? or Ridiculous? Should I have led out instead, or is this a check/fold since I have little chance of improvement (I don't think a check/call here would be a good move)? I interpret the buttons' call as a draw of some sort (more likely str8 since I have the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]). At this point I plan on potting the turn if a relatively safe card hits.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($180.6, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button is all-in $114.24, Hero folds.

Bad turn card. Button almost certainly has a lo and is freerolling for hi (If I'm not beat already).

So where did I screw up?

zizazziza · #2 03-28-2006, 12:31 PM

Re-raise the PF. Can you ask for a better situation? How much more do you have behind on the turn? I think you played this fine assuming you still had a decent amount of money behind.

Phil153 · #3 03-28-2006, 01:07 PM

Never fold this turn. Ever.

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Bad turn card. Button almost certainly has a lo and is freerolling for hi (If I'm not beat already).

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Yes, but there's $180 in the pot. $180!!! You're really not in trouble against anything except A25 or A2 + set.

You're risking $114 to win $90. If there's a greater than 56% chance you'll win high (or low) on the river, you're giving money away by folding. I think your odds are much better than that, given the pattern of aggression shown by button on all streets.

zizazziza · #4 03-28-2006, 01:46 PM

i think a25 or a57 or something to that nature is a very good chance. You have no low or real chance at the low. Im just saying that you are risking $114 to win $90 at best and that is only 56% of the time as you said. So you are risking $114 to win an EV of $50. So your overall EV is [(180+114+114)/2](.56) - (180+114+114)(.44) = 114.24-179.52 = - $65.28 . Therefore you should fold this

Phil153 · #5 03-28-2006, 01:54 PM

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i think a25 or a57 or something to that nature is a very good chance. You have no low or real chance at the low. Im just saying that you are risking $114 to win $90 at best and that is only 56% of the time as you said. So you are risking $114 to win an EV of $50. So your overall EV is [(180+114+114)/2](.56) - (180+114+114)(.44) = 114.24-179.52 = - $65.28 . Therefore you should fold this

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I don't follow your reasoning.

poker1O1 · #6 03-28-2006, 02:14 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
i think a25 or a57 or something to that nature is a very good chance. You have no low or real chance at the low. Im just saying that you are risking $114 to win $90 at best and that is only 56% of the time as you said. So you are risking $114 to win an EV of $50. So your overall EV is [(180+114+114)/2](.56) - (180+114+114)(.44) = 114.24-179.52 = - $65.28 . Therefore you should fold this

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I don't follow your reasoning.

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Neither do I. You can knock it down to [(180+144+144)/2]*(.56 - .44). Which doesn't mean anything at all, this doesn't account for the range of his hands or anything.

zizazziza · #7 03-28-2006, 02:16 PM

Okay ... you said there is a 56% chance of getting 1/2 the pot, correct? There is 180 in the pot now. Villian went all in for $114 so you have to call that. You are calling $114 to win half of the cumulative pot with a chance of .56. For the situation to have an EV = 0 the probability of winning half the pot has to be at least 66% to win 1/2 the pot.

Phil153 · #8 03-28-2006, 02:42 PM

First of all:

EV = (How much you can win)*(probability of winning)- (How much you can lose)*(probability of losing)

Let the probability of winning be p. The breakeven point is:

0 = (90)(p) - (114)(1-p)
114 = 204p
p = 114/204 = 55.88% ~=56%

This is how often we need to win half the pot to make this call profitable.

I said:

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You're risking $114 to win $90. If there's a greater than 56% chance you'll win high (or low) on the river, you're giving money away by folding.

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In other words, IF you think you can pick up half the pot more than 56% of the time, you should be calling. Is that any clearer?

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OK, next step: The hand range of the opponent. Tight aggressive villain pot raised the button. This usually indicates a decent hand like A2xx, AA, maybe A-3/4? maybe four high cards, maybe with an overpair. Seems like a reasonable hand range.

Next step: Ours odds on the turn. Villain needs a set or a straight to have us in trouble. Against any other hand, including A2 *with* a flush draw, we have odds to correctly call because of the size of the pot. We're crushing AAxx except AA5 and AA2, and we have odds to call against those as well. If villain doesn't have a decent low, or just an A2 low without backup, we have counterfeit outs to 3/4 as well.

What does this all mean? There are very few hands that have us crushed. There are however, a lot of hands that would play the way Villain has, which we either beat of have quite profitable odds to correctly call.

56% is the cutoff. I think we have easily have it against his hand range. This is a judgement call. What hand range do you put him on, taking all streets into consideration?

adanthar · #9 03-28-2006, 03:19 PM

I don't know PLO well, but if you're raising $60 (1/3 of effective stacks) with the plan to check/fold 20+ turn cards if called, there is something wrong with the hand.

zizazziza · #10 03-28-2006, 03:35 PM

i guess my math is off here. I'm just saying that if you can put his hand range on something that you have a greater than 56% chance of winning @ least half the pot then u can make this call. But if botton has been TAGish then this seems like he would have A23+FD on flop if not A235 or something to that extent, does it not?