Your Edge

[Lyric]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Lyric,

I just use the following simple formula to determine my edge:

Edge = avg. edge of an expert + a bajillion%

[/ QUOTE ]

That's amusing, because I've been estimating mine using roughly the same method so far. I was simply adding a bijililion trillion google%. However, your calculation is almost certainly a better guess.

[Redgrape]

I don't get it, i see this thread on the first page yet no new replies???

[ImsaKidd]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get it, i see this thread on the first page yet no new replies???

[/ QUOTE ]

[DJ Sensei]

has anybody tried dave's database code?

[ike]

Not to say its not interesting, but assuming you had this number what would it be good for?

[DJ Sensei]

Well it'd be as close as we can get to a true estimation of expected variance, and allow for more precise bankroll management, etc. I think we've all realized most of those things through shared experience by this point, but it never hurts to have some numbers to back it up.

Also, it allows for people to talk [censored] about how they have a bigger number than somebody else, which usually leads to hilarious consequences.

[beach_bum]

Hi Dave,
I am running this query on a FullTilt PostgreSQL database and I am betting the following error:

row number -1 is out of range 0..-1
Total query runtime: 10 ms.
0 rows retrieved.


The only figures I have changed are my screen name and the limit. Can you tell me what the problem is?

Also, can you give me the correct notation for FTP games?

I am curious what I should be putting in the:


AND game_level.game_level_desc = 'NL $50'


line if I want to look at higher limits on Full Tilt or PokerStars. I am guessing that the notation is different on the different sites.

Thanks



[ QUOTE ]


------------------------- code ----------------

SELECT
screen_name, COUNT(game_players.game_id) AS HANDS,
SUM(total_bet) AS BET, SUM(total_won) AS WON,
((SUM(total_won)/SUM(total_bet))-1)*100 as EDGE,
SUM(total_won)-SUM(total_bet) as PROFIT

FROM players, game_players, game, game_level
WHERE players.player_id = game_players.player_id
AND game_players.game_id = game.game_id
AND game.game_level_id = game_level.game_level_id
AND game_level.game_level_desc = '<font color="red">NL $50</font>'
AND screen_name='<font color="blue">your_screenname_here</font>'
GROUP BY screen_name;

--------------------------------------------------


[/ QUOTE ]

[holdem2000]

[ QUOTE ]
Well it'd be as close as we can get to a true estimation of expected variance, and allow for more precise bankroll management, etc. I think we've all realized most of those things through shared experience by this point, but it never hurts to have some numbers to back it up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't you do that in PT under the Sessions tab and click More Detail? Gives you a SD/100 hands (this will somewhat underestimate your variation around your expectation since hands aren't entirely uncorrelated)... this is more directly a measure of your variance. The edge stat can be quite low (indicating high variance) if a player frequently makes large bluffs while the true variance is lower because the player impeccably choses these large bluffs in spots where he is never called.