WCOOP ME, Table chip leader in a tricky (?) spot UTG

[PrayingMantis]

Few good hours into the ME (lvl 13).

Blinds 2500/1250, ante 250. I'm chip leader at the table by quite a margin, raising pretty often in and out position, but not really getting out of line post. I have raised 2 of the last 4 hands, taking the first pf and the other with a healthy c-bet in position on a J64 rainbow flop.

I'm now UTG with 340,591. I get J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I raise to 7,199 which is normal (I'm throwing in all kinds of similar random 7000-7500 numbers). This is 2nd hand in a row that I'm raising.

UTG+1 (156,521), calls quickly. He is a weak player who calls too much, probably feeling I'm trying to run him over or something. Considering his position he must have some kind of a real hand, I would also imagine he might call here with very big hands to "trap" me post, however he can definitely have 44 or ATs he just won't fold to my raise, without any real plan. He called my raises quite a few times and too often folded post flop.

Folded to UTG+3 (124,900) who makes it 24,650 total after a short deliberation. He is also quite a weak player, but from the rather tight and predictable type. He certainly has a big hand here, I might say AK/QQ+, but since I played so aggressively and the player behind me called too much, UTG+3 could have also slightly weaker hands (maybe TT, but relatively rarely I think. I believe he calls TT here usually, also possibly calling AKo somewhat more often than raising it? just guessing). He is definitely not a tricky player and is not doing it as some kind of a "play". He would also try to avoid playing pots with me, as I see it.

Folded to me. My action and plan?

Edit: One thing to mention here is that I believe that if UTG+3 does have AKo (AKs too?) here, he might be the exact kind of player who would fold it if I reshove on him (I didn't do any such moves up until now). Not saying this is a good move of course, only saying that I believe he is capable of making "big" bad folds, PF and post.

[gobboboy]

Pretty standard fold, the reraiser's bet sizing is a pretty huge tell as to the strength of his hand.

[sketchy1]

u also say he has AK/QQ+ and maybe rarely TT, so what is the debate? i'm assuming u made the fold. i can't imagine putting another dime in the pot.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty standard fold, the reraiser's bet sizing is a pretty huge tell as to the strength of his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really, gobbo? is it so standard? (I'm seriously asking, I'm a bit surprised from your answer). Standard fold even considering the fact UTG+1 might also call and/or that if it's only me and UTG+3 I might be able to get him off QQ-KK if an ace flop and I bet into him, lets say about 35K? plus of course factoring in the possiblity of flopping a set and stacking off an overpair? I need to call less than 18K into a 45K pot (that's without UTG+1 calling, which is v possible), and UTG+3 has 100K behind. Also, I have a v healthy stack and I can afford playing around a little. Why such a standard fold? I think the upside is much bigger than the downside, especially if you have such a strong read on him here.

[Exitonly]

i'm usually jamming here, btu i also often over estimate how much people notice/care when i'm opening 3 pots in a row, or being very active.

[gobboboy]

Because I don't believe you would be able to get away from an 832 board when he bets 25k on the flop, and that's not a profitable call given his range. You can't call because the set odds aren't really there and you probably give away some chips when you shouldn't/he resucks out on you/you flop T98 and have to put it in and lose more.

You know his range is QQ+ and AK, you can't call for set value, so why the hell would you possibly stick it in, especially since you already said that he might even fold AK if you stick it in?

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm usually jamming here, btu i also often over estimate how much people notice/care when i'm opening 3 pots in a row, or being very active.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's the WCOOP ME, I assume few of the players are sat qualifiers and this is their biggest mtt ever and generally I'm positive people pay a lot of attention to what happens here at the table (not saying they know what to do with what they notice, obv).

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
you can't call for set value, so why the hell would you possibly stick it in, especially since you already said that he might even fold AK if you stick it in?

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually wouldn't stick it in (Exitonly would...), However I can't see why you can't get away from a 832 board if you have such a strong read on him? I agree that if you can't get away from 832 board most of the time calling pf is bad.

[PrayingMantis]

Bump: Is this hand really so boring? I actually think that in the context of this particular tournament and my very detailed description of villains here, it's worth some discussion.

Also, I took 4th in this damm thing as you know (or some of you?). I think a post of mine after a long time of no posting deserves at least 9 replies, even if it's some completely standard fold (I don't think so). 8 replies will also be fine if they are made of more than 3 lines each. 7 replies if betgo posts too is also fine. Also there's post flop action to come, with lots of very dramatic decisions!!!! For whole stacks and tournament lifes!!

[IWEARGOGGLES]

I also think it is a fold and my fold button is usually broken.

My reasoning is I think UTG+3 or w/e would flat TT.