WCOOP ME, Table chip leader in a tricky (?) spot UTG - Page 2

registrar · #11 10-03-2007, 06:19 PM

Fold.

Alternatively, call and see dramatic flop action.

XXsooted · #12 10-03-2007, 07:08 PM

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However I can't see why you can't get away from a 832 board if you have such a strong read on him?

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So then you're calling for mostly set value. There's around 45k in the pot, and utg+3 has 100k left, so there's 145k to win, and it costs you 17k to see the flop, giving you around 8.5 to 1. Usually I'd like more overlay than that considering the times you flop a set and get resucked or the times you don't get paid all the way through. Since you seem to have a pretty strong read that he has an overpair, plus the Axx flops where you bluff him off of his hand, I don't hate the call.

Also if UTG+1 would overcall with stuff like ATs or KQs, the possibility of stacking him adds alot to your set value.

ImNotSoGood · #13 10-03-2007, 07:43 PM

Easy fold IMO. Predictable tight players are doing this with QQ+ usually sometimes with AK/AKs and JJ, almost never with TT.

LearnedfromTV · #14 10-03-2007, 08:36 PM

This hand is v interesting if you have queens, with jacks i think it's a fold given the description. I just don't see this opponent having TT or AQ.

Congrats on 4th! You might have been the only one at the FT who wasn't cheating [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

tedtodd · #15 10-03-2007, 10:44 PM

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This hand is v interesting if you have queens, with jacks i think it's a fold given the description. I just don't see this opponent having TT or AQ.

Congrats on 4th! You might have been the only one at the FT who wasn't cheating [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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JJ no good. You're playing fine and picking up chips- I think you can get away here. No need to get behind something big.
Gobo covered it. The PF action indicates a better hand than JJ.

PrayingMantis · #16 10-03-2007, 10:53 PM

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This hand is v interesting if you have queens, with jacks i think it's a fold given the description. I just don't see this opponent having TT or AQ.

Congrats on 4th! You might have been the only one at the FT who wasn't cheating [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Yeah it's also more impressive that I took 4th considering the possibility that places 9-5 were actually same player. (OK I'm a bit worried now about people with broken sarcasm dectors regarding this whole situation, so I'll make it clear that I have absolutely no real information about anything related to the multiaccounting rumors of any the other FT players. And the possibility that the winner was doing it makes me real angry and sad, regardless of any prize money i can get out of it).

Anyway I agree that with QQ it's a completely different hand. But still I can't see how JJ is not at least a marginal call here. And IMO a marginal call is very close to being standard call with my stack.

OK so I call. UTG+1 folds.

Flop comes: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check to UTG+3 and he thinks a good few seconds before acting. He bets 30K. His timing isn't strong.

I put him all in pretty quickly. He thinks for a long time and then calls with KK.

Of course it seems like I completely butchered this hand, and after all the "standard fold" replies from most of you, it will seem simply a badly played hand by me. I was thinking quite a lot (considering I had many other things to think about since it happened), and initially I obv thought it was bad, awful actually, and I hated myself for doing this idiotic move and losing so much of my beautiful stack. But the more I think about it, it doesn't seem to be that bad at all (with all my v specific reads and assumptions).

The "key", if I may, is that I'm positive UTG+3 folds his overpair to my c/r some significant % of the time. When he put in that 30K I thought that this guy has an overpair and that he is actually worried about me calling with 55/66/TT pf and hitting. It's like the classic hand for me to have here in the eyes of a player who looks for monsters under beds and wants to live on. I didn't make any such move previously, and I think it's pretty obvious that he suspects I can put him on a big hand preflop, from the pf action.

It was not a bad read by me, but clearly too optimistic in this particular spot.

My main mistake was that this board was not ideal for this move. I think that on a rainbow board (same cards) he folds at least 40% of the time. Also I'm sure he folds a lot when an ace flops and I bet into him. I think that he also may fold QQ more than KK/AA on some good boards (for me), which is not necessarily rational of course, but a classic misconception by weak players.

Factoring in: a)the times I fold him when A flops, b)times he folds overpair to my c/r, c)times he calls my c/r with overpair when I flop set, d)times he calls with over pair and I hit my 2 outer, e)times UTG+1 calls too, I hit big and take some of his stack too or all of it (and maybe some of UTG+3's stack as well - It's a perfect position to me to get the most out of the two if I lead flop into them in cases I hit a Jack)........ all of these make it a pf call IMO, and a reasonable line post not even considering future benefits of my image. Which are absolutely real in those circumstances.

Does it make sense to you? I have no problem agreeing that it's a v bad call PF and that the c/r post is awful if you'll convince me of it, but without being completely results-oriented (that is - the fact he called this time, doesn't mean he calls 100% of the time. Far from it IMO. The question is how often and on what boards).

I believe of course in the importance of the first MTT theorem: "people don't fold overpairs". But I think that it's good to rethink it too, especially in the context of "the richest online MTT ever", vs. a scared and "thinking" player.

OK, flame away. Possibly it's a lot complete nonsense. Also, I do such stuff very rarely. I am very easily check-folding this flop all day post-flop, and fast, with slightly different reads.

Edit: if anybody wonders I didn't hit a Jack.

TheNewf · #17 10-03-2007, 11:37 PM

I'm in the standard fold preflop camp.

edit: trying to bluff people off big pairs is just really bad tournament poker.

PrayingMantis · #18 10-03-2007, 11:49 PM

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edit: trying to bluff people off big pairs is just really bad tournament poker.

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Thank you for enlightening me.

OK if all other replies are going to be in this spirit, there's not much that I can add. Not sure if you are aware of it, but a lot of specific things some (let's say strong) players do in very specific spots are very bad poker in ALL other v similar spots. IMHO, being able to see some v small differences in circumstances can make a huge difference.

Also I can assure you people folded overpairs to me before in "tournament poker".

IWEARGOGGLES · #19 10-04-2007, 12:01 AM

I can't figure out why you're upset at the replies.

TheNewf · #20 10-04-2007, 12:08 AM

Sorry didn't see you already had that in your last post. Nonetheless, I think you greatly overestimate your fold equity here. The people who minireraise to trick you into calling preflop aren't folding to a checkraise on the T65 flop. If he was playing scared he would be way more likely to bomb it preflop to win it right there. There is no you can profitably checkraise bluff him off an AA/KK overpair here. I doubt you can bluff him off QQ often enough either, though I'm sure you do get some folds. And bluffing him when a scare card hits isn't as great as it seems either since you fire a ton of chips into a set some % of the time as well, though it may well be a profitable bluff. You're also not counting the times the caller now shoves after you call and you don't even see a flop. Just fold preflop...