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#1
10-17-2007, 11:36 PM
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Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
I made the isolation raise because the guy had been limping in early pos a lot. Board is kinda coordinated on the flop to cbet into two. I bet the turn and the guy called very quickly. Thoughts
Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, $16,000 Guarantee (Rebuy), 200/400 Blinds, 50 Ante, 9 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter BTN: 10,269 SB: 6,270 BB: 18,905 UTG: 43,633 UTG+1: 40,575 UTG+2: 25,082 Hero (MP1): 49,105 MP2: 19,849 CO: 37,922 Pre-Flop: (1,050) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1) UTG folds, UTG+1 calls 400, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to 1,600, MP2 folds, CO calls 1,600, BTN folds, UTG+1 calls 1,200 Flop: (5,850) [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 (3 Players) UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks Turn: (5,850) [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A (3 Players) UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 4,400, CO calls 4,400, UTG+1 folds River: (14,650) [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 (2 Players) Hero bets 43,055 and is All-In, 
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#3
10-18-2007, 03:32 AM
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Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
[ QUOTE ]
What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing? Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight? [/ QUOTE ] We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight
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#4
10-18-2007, 06:01 AM
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Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing? Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight? [/ QUOTE ] We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight [/ QUOTE ] If villain is non-thinking and an unknown, the turn instacall means a marginal hand. What marginal hand is snap-calling turn that includes a 4 that is also calling river? Most people can't hero call AQ-A7 on the river. Is AQ-A7 and missed flush draws more than 65% of his range?
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#5
10-18-2007, 08:26 AM
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Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing? Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight? [/ QUOTE ] We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight [/ QUOTE ] If villain is non-thinking and an unknown, the turn instacall means a marginal hand. What marginal hand is snap-calling turn that includes a 4 that is also calling river? Most people can't hero call AQ-A7 on the river. Is AQ-A7 and missed flush draws more than 65% of his range? [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't matter if his marginal hand includes a 4, he knows we don't have a 4 either.
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#6
10-18-2007, 11:59 AM
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Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What are you hoping he folds on the river? What are you representing? Do you even have to represent anything when he basically cannot call without a straight? [/ QUOTE ] We're representing very little and if villain is thinking he's definitely calling with less than a straight [/ QUOTE ] Agreed.
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#8
10-19-2007, 09:49 AM
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Re: Does this river bluff work 2/3 the time??
The problem with the overbet is that if we get called we've made this from a minor loss to a major loss because we overbet the river. HERO in this hand is repping an A and even AK should call in this case.
So this a a very high variance play that many donkeys use which probably are EV-.
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