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#1
11-14-2007, 01:00 AM
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Re: uh-oh
[ QUOTE ]
Tough spot. IMO, villain has made it clear that he may not call a raise. He's been looking for an excuse to fold this whole hand, and this may well push him over the edge. So you can't really count on the 3rd guy to eat up a lot of that 90% you need between you. [/ QUOTE ] I haven't played live a ton, but I got the exact opposite impression. This guy has deliberated, called, deliberated, called, deliberated, called. For him to fold on the end getting 16:1 and not get to see his opponent's cards, after all that pain he's put himself through, just seems really unlikely to me. 
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#2
11-14-2007, 02:32 AM
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Re: uh-oh
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Tough spot. IMO, villain has made it clear that he may not call a raise. He's been looking for an excuse to fold this whole hand, and this may well push him over the edge. So you can't really count on the 3rd guy to eat up a lot of that 90% you need between you. [/ QUOTE ] I haven't played live a ton, but I got the exact opposite impression. This guy has deliberated, called, deliberated, called, deliberated, called. For him to fold on the end getting 16:1 and not get to see his opponent's cards, after all that pain he's put himself through, just seems really unlikely to me. [/ QUOTE ] I guess we'll see in the results! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] From a game theory POV, your read is important though... if 3rd guy will always call, then we can fold 33 unexploitably. Given that our hand is in the top echelon of our possible holdings though, we have to quite sure the 3rd guy is calling before we can think about folding. I don't think we can be that sure, so I call. -eric
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#3
11-18-2007, 04:45 PM
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Re: uh-oh
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Tough spot. IMO, villain has made it clear that he may not call a raise. He's been looking for an excuse to fold this whole hand, and this may well push him over the edge. So you can't really count on the 3rd guy to eat up a lot of that 90% you need between you. [/ QUOTE ] I haven't played live a ton, but I got the exact opposite impression. This guy has deliberated, called, deliberated, called, deliberated, called. For him to fold on the end getting 16:1 and not get to see his opponent's cards, after all that pain he's put himself through, just seems really unlikely to me. [/ QUOTE ] I guess we'll see in the results! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] From a game theory POV, your read is important though... if 3rd guy will always call, then we can fold 33 unexploitably. Given that our hand is in the top echelon of our possible holdings though, we have to quite sure the 3rd guy is calling before we can think about folding. I don't think we can be that sure, so I call. -eric [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand: Why would 3rd guy calling make you more inclined to fold? pbob's gonna have 3rd beat an overwhelming percentage of the time. If anything, I would be MORE inclined to call if I thought 3rd guy would call due to the extra bet overlay I'd be receiving. Please explain.
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#5
11-18-2007, 11:32 PM
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Re: uh-oh
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bc if we are expecting the other guy to not fold even after the c/r then sb bluffing here would be even more incredibly unlikely than it already is? [/ QUOTE ] In other words, if we are expecting the other guy to call, then the sb must expect the same thing, therefore he's not bluffing? Do I understand correctly that this is what you're saying? I still say the other guy doesn't matter at all, bc we have him beat almost 100% of the time. The only consideration is whether or not the sb is bluffing (or if he could think his hand beats OP's). Personally, I think this will be less than 3% of the time, so a fold is in order. Although, I will say that I've made plays like this where I thought the good player in the hand would think I can't be c/r bluffing the river bc the pot is protected by a 3rd player. But this is only when I'm quite certain I have the 3rd player beat, but not the good player. It's a risky play to make, but can be worth it if the pot is big, which it certainly is here.
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#7
11-19-2007, 01:42 AM
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Re: uh-oh
Why should we think that MP will call the river c/r? From PokerBob's description of the hand, we should be more inclined to believe that MP won't call. Assuming that the SB noticed the same reactions from MP, if anyone is going to call the river raise, it is going to have to be PokerBob.
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#8
11-27-2007, 04:53 AM
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Re: uh-oh
In this spot I don't think 3rd guy matters, except to help you narrow down the range of the SB in this case. If SB is observant, he can definitely see the same factors that we see in the MP player... ie he hates his hand--specifically either A-K, but more likely K-Q.
The fact of the matter is that we, hero that is, hasn't faced any pressure over the course of the hand. MP never folding isn't our concern here. We have him beat--the question is is the SB making a squeeze play here against us b/c he knows that MP wants to fold, but is hoping we don't know MP wants to fold! Thus squeezing us out and getting MP to fold as well? Another thought here is that he could be squeezing us out with what he thinks is the 2nd best hand, but one he is sure beats MP? Coupled with the relative strength of our hand... I see no way you could fold here. Based on our range, the MP's possible range, and the SB's range... I think a call is in order and a high percentage of the time we are going to get shown Q-Jc. However, I don't think that we will see this hand as often as everyone is thinking we will see it here. I don't see congruently over the course of the entire hand, how a player supposed as good as the SB would of played this hand so passively? If he is tight-aggressive, why isn't he check-raising the flop in a 3 way pot? Or possibly, why not check-raise the turn for value when he turns the godzilla draw? In conclusion, I think you are going to see air or a strong 2nd best hand here often enough that you can't possibly fold here.
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#9
11-27-2007, 04:59 AM
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Re: uh-oh
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Or possibly, why not check-raise the turn for value when he turns the godzilla draw? [/ QUOTE ] because that would be awful. BB ain't folding anything on the turn and may even 3bet.
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#10
11-27-2007, 05:14 AM
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Re: uh-oh
Fair enough, w/o position he may not make that play. However, his flop play doesn't seem to follow a strong draw like q-jc. I saw someone mention that j-9c could be possible... that seems more likely here. But all in all, if he is as good as you say--he could easily be trying to exploit your poor relative position in this hand on the river? Or he could be slow playing a good in this case 2nd best hand?
How long had you been playing with this player? Have you shown down only good cards, played in a straightforward manner? In general, what is his read of you, and would he make a play based on this read and the MP being behind you?
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