boy i hate this spot w jj as an overpair.

[hamnegger]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t4245)
MP2 (t1505)
MP3 (t3715)
Hero (t5330)
Button (t2465)
SB (t2840)
BB (t2345)
UTG (t2885)
UTG+1 (t3005)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t450</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls t450, Hero calls t450, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t300.

Flop: (t1875) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t1800</font>, MP3 folds, Hero ?
(no notes on this player who bet)

[Coz]

I think UTG can be betting this flop with a lot of hands, probablly 66+, AK, AQ, QQ. I think his bet is way to large for a value bet, I doubt he is doing this with KK or AA, even QQ, I mean I know he wants to protect his hand but I think that is just way to large a bet, especially since there are no draws out there. I would shove over, I think it is unlikly that BB flopped a T.

[kniper]

[ QUOTE ]
I think UTG can be betting this flop with a lot of hands, probablly 66+, AK, AQ, QQ. I think his bet is way to large for a value bet, I doubt he is doing this with KK or AA, even QQ, I mean I know he wants to protect his hand but I think that is just way to large a bet, especially since there are no draws out there. I would shove over, I think it is unlikly that BB flopped a T.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are thinking like a logical person would. there is no logic to some of the things these people do.

honestly i would have raised PF to try and isolate against villain because of his stack size. JJ is awesome against his range here. as played, push. this is 77-99 or AK/AQ often enough.

[Coz]

I agree a raise preflop would have been best. I am glad I am thinking logically, honestly, my lack of logic has been a leak in my game latley. TY Kniper.

[usha]

There's already ~1100 in the pot PF, so 3betting here PF would commit us, which will suck on so many flops with overcards. Any 3bet here should be a shove and a shove only, which I don't really hate because we have a really nice hand against UTG range, which is probably calling here with 88+,AQ+


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.883% 51.98% 00.90% 368517480 6369366.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 47.117% 46.22% 00.90% 327637644 6369366.00 { 88+, AQs+, AQo+ }

I also like a call PF with our rather healthy stack. If we were &lt; 4000 I would def shove here. As played, I think this is a shove. Villain could be doing this with 66-99 or AK and looks like he wants a fold. QQ+ would probably bet much less or even check here.

[BarryLyndon]

With 1100 already in the pot, pushing preflop here can never be all that bad considering that you would be putting in 2900 to win 4000. Calling here is going to complicate things so badly with MP already calling and a A, Q, or K hitting on the board. You are also inviting BB to call with weak aces and what not.

You need to win 42% of the time to break even. Our most conservative range of AK; QQ+ yields 36%. Close, but no cigar. But, let's be realistic here. Range is probably 99+; AQ+ or wider. So, you are at 50% against that range. Say range is 1010+. 46%.

Yyyyyesssss, sexytime push preflop ftw.

Barry

[halpgr]

I'd be a bit surprised if UTG is cbetting this flop 4 way with AK/AQ. His flop bet is effectively a shove as virtually all his stack is now in. I suppose it could be a desperate AK/AQ hoping any PP will give him credit for QQ-AA and fold.

I think UTG must always bet QQ and KK on this flop to charge any overcard draws. He should also bet AA to protect against 2 outer underpair draws. I think UTG more likely has QQ-AA and less likely has AQ-AK or 77-99.

Also its possible one of the other preflop callers make a loose call preflop with AT or JTs and caught a lucky flop. Thus I'll say fold the flop.

[tomek322]

Fold flop. Anyone folding this pre? With another caller we are only continuing with a set. Are stacks deep enough to make this call profitable?

[Sherman]

This is a tough spot but the solution is to plan our hand around villain's range.

PF is tricky because if we re-raise PF, we have built a big pot and leave ourselves with a tough decision is UTG 4-bet shoves.

Here is our equity against his PF UTG raising range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.239% 52.34% 00.90% 381804456 6539778.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 46.761% 45.86% 00.90% 334557492 6539778.00 { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }


Here is our equity if he 4-bet shoves:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.190% 35.98% 00.21% 125683776 731868.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 63.810% 63.60% 00.21% 222162504 731868.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

So if we 3-bet PF we are very likely to be priced in against his range and have to call his shove. We are likely facing that same range of hands if we shove and are called. So, if we shove PF we pick up t1125 56% of the time if he calls using the tight range of AKo,AKs,QQ+ and assuming the others all fold. That nets us t630. If he calls we have 36% equity against his range for t6685 which is 2406.6. So overall, shoving makes us t3036.6 and we are risking 3005. That means we gain +31.6 on a shove. FWIW, if he calls with AQs, it is like t66 more +EV for us.

So shoving seems to have a positive expectation if we assume everyone else bails.



Anyhow, if we call PF we have to decide what we are looking for. We already know we are ahead of ranges PF. We have the advantage of being in position. So, we need to decide what we are going to do on various flops and various lines from the villain.

For example, we might say we are calling PF because we are ahead of his range, but we fold our overpair on the flop to a PSB because that means his range is tighter and we no long have equity against his hand range. So it's opponent dependent. Like if he never PSB c-bets AK or an underpair:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 10.051% 07.55% 02.50% 8970 2970.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 89.949% 87.45% 02.50% 103890 2970.00 { TT+ }

We have an easy fold.

If he pot-size c-bets his entire range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.795% 58.04% 00.76% 227529 2970.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 41.205% 40.45% 00.76% 158571 2970.00 { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }


We should shove for value against this opponent.


Anyhow, my feeling is that his range has significantly tightened from PF to the flop. 3 people called him and he made a PSB on this flop anyway. So I think we have a fold on the flop.

[ZBTHorton]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone folding this pre? With another caller we are only continuing with a set. Are stacks deep enough to make this call profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]


What? No, we're not folding pre-flop..ever. You need to re-raise/shove PF.