Can I fold top pair if it's really low?

[cheburashka]

I’m in 3rd place with 12 remaining in a 1.20/45 (still working on rebuilding the bankroll lol).

UTG: (7295 in chips)
MP: (13741 in chips)
CO: (645 in chips)
SB: (3630 in chips)
Hero: (10310 in chips)

Blinds are 200/400/25, Hero is in BB with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

One fold, MP calls 400, one fold, SB raises 400 to 800, Hero calls 400, MP calls 400. I felt that this call was justified by pot odds, since stacks are still pretty deep.

Flop (1325): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB bets 400, Hero???

SB is 30/4/0.5, so I expect that his betting here means something. I don’t want Barry to call me a pussy, but I don’t want to be led down the primrose path by slow-played AA, either. I realize that I'm getting 4+ to 1, but I need more like 20 to 1 to justify looking for a set, and I think that given his passive play there's little chance he'll pay off if another 7 hits. Hitting a 6 would be better in terms of getting paid off, but I still don't like it.

[Kimbell175113]

Better than 6-1, with 9 outs. Would you fold a flush draw for that bet? This is better, though, because you have 9 outs AND the possibility of having the best hand already.

[cheburashka]

I think 4-1 (1700-400), no (I edited myself above).

But I don't understand the argument about the flush draw, since even if I hit on the turn, I have to pay again on the river (and probably a lot more, if there are two hearts on the board), unless SB is a total idiot.

[Tackleberry]

What Kimbell wanted to say is that you have 9 outs (every 7, every 6 and every 5) to improve against an overpair. Plus - if Villain has no overpair - you might still hold the best hand.

This means - if you would not fold a flush draw here (supposed that you had one!), you should less then ever fold your actual hand here!

[cheburashka]

OK, got it. Thanks!

[Frank Zappy]

Fold??

This is an easy raise, I'd go to 2K.

Forget about your hand for a second, this is a much bigger pot for SB than it is for us and he's played it timidly or passively -- we can't fully know. But as big stack these are the EXACT situations you want to put your opponents in: Sweating for their tournament lives (even when in the money).

Besides that you have a PHENOMENAL semi-bluff hand so Push man!

He'll lay down AK and even if he has AA, he'll think long and hard before calling since you only called from BB and could have made 2 pair on this ragged board.

If it were just about the odds CPA's would be on the top of every leader board.

[cheburashka]

Thanks for that perspective. FWIW, I folded and ended up finishing 3rd, losing only due to a very big and very bad beat at the end.

The problem is that these micro-stakes tourneys really reward conservative play. I'm 95% ROI and 40% ITM since switching to 1.20/45, and my strategy consists almost solely of value-betting premiums and solidly-hit flops on SCs, and then collecting stacks from calling stations.

I'm a bit worried, in fact, that when I get sick of this and recharge my bankroll to play at higher stakes, that exactly the perspective you are talking about will be missing, and I'll leave a lot of money on the table.

[BarryLyndon]

Cheb,

I'm not that violent, lol, and honestly, I save my "pussy" comments for players who ask if AK is a good fold preflop (or like 99 off the button) with ridiculously low Ms or in situations where they basically took a bad beat or didn't want to bubble. And they deserve it and need to hear something to that affect. However, my last FTP chat ban has made me see the light and I want to be more civil in my commentary.

First, your pot size is incorrect on the flop. Secondly, SB's raise, given stacks, is sickeningly suspect and a fold here isn't out of question. Yes, you are putting 400 into a big pot, but stack sizes dictate that you're either: 1. going to face a big bet on the flop (you're not seeing a free turn here often); 2. you could wind up trapping yourself against a better hand on the flop.

SB's bet of 400 is equally suspect, but at this point, you could be up against a miserably played AK/AQ/KQ/AJ that you are ahead of. If you are behind, well, you have outs. You need to just get it in. RR to 2200, fold if MP RRs, try to get it in against SB.

Barry

[Kimbell175113]

Three people put in 800 PF, one bets 400 on flop, that ((800*3)+400)/400 = 7-1. (and all I meant earlier was that you have the same number of outs as a flush draw, just to have something to compare it to).

SB's raise is indeed suspect, and he could easily have QQ+, but since you didn't fold preflop (not sure if this would be right or not, but it's closer than it seems at first) I don't think you can fold at all on the flop unless you have reason to believe that one of the other players is going to raise.

[Sherman]

If I make this call PF, it is b/c I don't intend on folding on a flop this good.

I mean, with 67s this is one of the best hand you can hope to flop.

Now I'm not saying, "Because you called PF, you have to call here." But I am saying if I plan on playing this hand PF, it's because I think I can win the pot on flops like this.

Otherwise, I don't think the pot odds/implied odds justify the PF call. You just aren't going to flop good enough hands that stack villain's (like 67A vs. his AK) enough to make it profitable.