25NL - 55 flops a set, yay?

Willem · #1 06-30-2007, 02:41 PM

MP is a 41/7/0.5 over a small sample.
CO is a 20/14/2.4 over a small sample.

I had no reads on MP. I had played one hand against CO where I stacked him because he called all the way with tptk.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

BB ($25.25)
UTG ($26.95)
MP ($25.70)
CO ($44.10)
Hero ($83.25)
SB ($12.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $0.75, CO raises to $2.5, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds, MP raises to $5, CO calls $2.50, Hero calls $2.50.

Flop: ($15.35) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP bets $20.7 (All-In), CO raises to $39.1, Hero ...?

What do we do here?

Let's assume it would be right to fold here, if this is so, shouldn't we fold this hand pf?

I think a strong case could be made for folding this hand to CO's raise pf, because MP is still to act, but I'm not sure.

Flups · #2 06-30-2007, 03:37 PM

Why would it be correct to fold in this spot? Because there's a chance you're facing a set of Kings?

MP has a big hand, no doubt. But I don't think he would push top set here into the other two players, he would want to milk a hand like that. And if CO lets himself get stacked with TPTK, why wouldn't he get stacked with TPTK in this spot? I mean, AK is the nuts right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

And if one of them has KK, hopefully it is MP and you end up losing a minimum.

Just call, win the pot and go all in pre-flop the next time you get AA, just to show off a little bit... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Flups · #3 06-30-2007, 03:42 PM

BTW: how did CO come back to almost 200 BB after you stacked him? Did he suck out on someone or did he play well after his onetime mistake with TPTK?

bored · #4 06-30-2007, 03:49 PM

I fold this pf. I don't play speculative hands in RR pots.

As played, I instantly call the flop. One of them has AA or AK; hopefully one of them has AK and one has AA. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Nick C · #5 06-30-2007, 05:28 PM

I think preflop is close, but MP won't 4-bet very often, so at least there's that. The main justification for a call is that CO is deep-stacked and quite likely has a big PP.

On the flop, I think the thing to do is call and hope no one has KK or TT. MP's flop push isn't really so scary (in terms of combos, he's going to have AA more often than KK, even if those are the only two hands he 4-bets preflop). CO's push is more troubling, but if MP has AA, CO will still have AK twice as often as KK. TT needs to be considered as well, and I'm not exactly ecstatic about this action, it's true.

We do need a parlay to work in our favor, but we're also getting pretty good odds with a very strong hand.

All right, just out of curiosity, let's see how often we figure to be best if we can narrow MP's range to AA/KK and CO's range to AA/AK/KK/TT (and these are basically the worst-case scenario ranges).

Based on these ranges, MP will have KK 1/3 of the time.

The other 2/3 of the time he'll have AA, and CO will have AK 6 times out of 13, AA 1 time out of 13, KK 3 times out of 13, and TT 3 times out of 13. So that leaves us ahead (7/13)*(2/3), or 14/39 of the time.

Which is good enough. And like I said, it's a worst-case scenario. In reality, I think MP's flop push makes KK a little less likely for him than the combos indicate, and hands like AK and QQ can't be entirely ruled out for him.

I should add that the model I gave isn't precise even for the ranges, since when MP has KK, you'll be ahead of MP's AA 2/3 of the time for the additional $18.4 in the sidepot. But this helps you rather than hurting you.

So it looks like a time to call and pray.

barryc83 · #6 06-30-2007, 05:36 PM

Fold pf dude. You're prolly deep enough to call the CO 3bet but MP will often 4bet like he did and now you payed 20bb just to set mine. You actually got lucky bc if CO 5bets it you just gave the 2 of them money.

The flop isnt even debatable, you stack off here. One of them heas AA and the other one has AK, get it in. Sometimes youy lose but you cant call pre and then fold when you hit fo sho.

Cracka Lacka · #7 07-01-2007, 12:28 AM

As played call all day

jessyj07 · #8 07-01-2007, 12:29 AM

fold preflop, never ever do anything but call on the flop.

drsmooth · #9 07-01-2007, 12:48 AM

I'd fold preflop, too much action. Since you've paid so much and hit your card, call. MP's push is strange, and it looks like CO is trying to isolate and get you to fold.

Bantam222 · #10 07-01-2007, 01:58 AM

a little iffy pre flop, id fold...

but as played, do you not realize that this is one of the best possible flops for you? no flush draw, two broadway cards plus your 5, QJ is still far behind, all other hands are F'ed, if he has a set so be it.

i get it in here all day and im very happy about it.