tough spot w/ full house

[wulfpacker21]

2nd hand of a 27player sng $10


Seat 1: Hero (Button) (1,470)

Seat 7: Villian (utg) (1,500)



*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero[6d 6h]
1 call 30
2 folds
villian raises to 60
1 call 60

ForSALLY calls 60
1 call
1 fold

*** FLOP *** [2h 3d 3s]
BB has 15 seconds left to act
BB checks

Villian bets 120
1 folds
Hero calls 120
BB folds
*** TURN *** [2h 3d 3s] [3h]

Vilian checks
Hero bets 300
Villian calls 300
*** RIVER *** [2h 3d 3s 3h] [7c]
Villian bets 1,020, and is all in

HERO????

[feint06]

As played:

2:1 on your money

From my estimation:
at least 10% chance of pure bluff (Harrington)
~10% chance he has under pair (A2 included)
~1% chance he has a 3 for quads
~25% chance he has ace-high (AK AQ etc)
54% chance he has an overpair

So you are going to win ~ 46% of the time with 2:1 odds. Being the 2nd hand, you have very little $ equity in the tournament, so you call

I would raise the flop though. It is an excellent flop for 66 and you need to find out now where your hand stands. This will keep you from having these tough situations on the river...

[wulfpacker21]

this seemed a lot like a person who has a medium pair or connectors like 87, 76, or 88, 99, maybe even 77

[wulfpacker21]

blinds are 15/30

[Borys313]

Dont lie to us boy, you have a lousy one pair and not a boat.

[wulfpacker21]

guess you can't read a board right

[Coz]

I would have re-raised the flop and be happy to take it down here, the last thing I want to see is an ace or king or ten or some other overcard hitting on 4th street. I see alot of people playing a pair of 2's like this, as well as A or K high. If you re-raised and got called and opponent led out on 4th street I would probably lay it down. I am thinking opponents range is 44-99, A2-AK. However, I think he most probably has a better full house then you and would probably lay it down on the river. That check call on 4th street and the push on 5th really makes me think that we are no good here.

[mariachiinc]

Raise to 180 on flop check fold after that...

[Dunkman]

I'd actually fold the river, his play looks like he's pretty much pegged your hand and is worried you'll check behind. Sure, it's a bluff some % of the time, but when it's not you're screwed, and no way he's bluffing 35% of the time.

And I agree with raising the flop to 350 or so then shutting down after that.

[jgunnip]

I'd probably play the flop the same way but check behind on the turn and call most river bets. HH is confusing tho, is villan UTG or what.