STTF SNG->cash thread

[futuredoc85]

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so he would donk the turn and i could raise him

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god no, you gotta bet that flop

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no i dont, im not really folding out anything that he flatcalls preflop w/ on that board

[Scuba Chuck]

<font color="blue"> Villain in this hand is 27/9/4.0 AF over 100 hands. He's down $1.
I'm running like 37/27. </font>

Ks Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)8d

SB: $32.65
BB: $66.80
UTG: $70.25
CO: $26.65
Hero (BTN): $100.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.20</font>, SB folds, BB calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.90</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $4.50</font>, Hero calls $2.60

<font color="blue"> I'd say I c-bet near 99% of the time on any flop. </font>

Turn: ($11.55) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $6.00</font>, Hero calls $6.00

<font color="blue"> What's my river line? How bad do you rate this call?
FWIW, I intended to fold most turn cards, but his turn bet size **felt** awkward, so I called.
</font>
River: ($23.55) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, hero checks.

[microbet]

I like to look at hands where people who aren't necessarily complete idiots screw things up.

MP is a good player. He's 22/19 5/6/2. He opens a few more hands than you might, but nothing crazy. He's moderately aggressive, but not relentlessly so. He's been observed no cbetting a whiff and checking behind with trips on a 4 flushed board.

Absolute Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($242)
SB ($534.70)
Hero ($465.50)
UTG ($623.70)
MP ($922.40)
CO ($656.90)

Preflop: SB (not HERO, not me)has A, T.
1 fold, MP raises to $16, 1 fold, Button calls $16, SB calls $14, 1 fold.

Flop: ($52) T, 9, 5 (3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP bets $36, Button folds, SB calls $36.

Turn: ($124) J (2 players)
SB checks, MP bets $80, SB raises to $238, MP raises to $870.4, SB calls $242.70 (All-In).

River: ($1085.40) T (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1085.40

Put yourself in SB's shoes and get yourself to the turn like that even if you would have done something different earlier.

You have a draw to the nuts and you have a weak made hand which could be ahead. One problem with the draw is that the implied odds are pretty weak since when you hit there will be a 4 flush on the board.

If your only outs are spades you are a 4.5 to 1 dog. The two tens being good would make you about 3.4 to 1.

A king could be a bad river card as AQ or AxKs are possible holdings, but there aren't a ton of suckout cards for him if he's behind.

If the flush hits you will sometime get paid on the river and sometimes not. Assume you average about another $80 on the river and you are being offered 3.5 to 1.

Thoughts on various lines:

bet/fold: This might possibly fold out AJ. The board is scary and you would be threatening a river bet that would put him in a bad spot. He will often just call with a lot of hands that are ahead. This means you are setting the price for your draw. Because the implied odds aren't great it's not really easy to set a profitable price for drawing, but you can get fairly close with the added EV when river chk/chk and yhig. Draw back vs. chk/call is, if he raises you don't get to see the river.

chk/call - obviously depends on bet size: If he bets this amount perhaps calling is +EV. Drawback is he might bet more than you would have - maybe more than you can call. Another plus is a free card is obviously +EV.

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some more numbers for when there's one bet ($80) and a call on the turn (with tens no good)

Assume you avg. $80 more on river if you hit.

Pot was giving you 3.5 to 1 on that bet, but you were 4.5 to 1 against. If the pot would have given you 4.5 to 1 you would be good. So, if the bet were $62 instead of $80 you would have been offered 4.5 to 1. So, based purely on the draw you lose $18 on the call.

If the river goes chk/chk and yhig 7% of the time, you get back that $18. Right?
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So, which is better bet/fold or chk/call? Which line gives you better implied odds on your flush draw?


Consider the check/raise or bet/3bet.

Both of these lines are kind of ugly with this stack size. Bet/3bet really leaves you with no FE so I think that is out. The Craise in the actual hand was pretty nasty since it left like 40% of the guy's stack and he was commited with very little equity and no more FE. CRAI would probably have had more FE.

If he calls your CRAI he's likely to have a range of something like [55,99-JJ,78, QK, QsQx, KsKx, AxQs]. He might possibly fold some of those hand, but he might possibly call with AA or JT. You have 23.7% equity against that range. (I think that's 53 possible hands he's calling with)

Hands he could have and still fold, maybe [T9, AA, KKnospd, QQnospd, 88, AK, AQ(not the spade)] 52 hands? He won't always 2 barrel the AK, but he might 2 barrel some other bluffs. Your equity against this range is 64%.

So, 50% of the time he folds and you gain 36% in equity or $72 if he bets $80.

50% of the time he calls and you lose 76.3% of the $483 that goes in after you decide to crai which is $369. So, $184.

What am I missing? I'm sure there's something missing.

So is a CRAI losing $110?


Now this may seem like a lot of work on someone else's hand, but I think there are some very general things here. It's not all that rare that we find ourselves on the turn with a combo hand that is neither a strong made hand nor a fantastic draw.

It's a hard hand to let go of because you could be ahead and you have some outs to the nuts. The draw isn't worth chasing by itself. The chance of missing the draw and showing down a winner isn't worth much further investment. But, put them together and maybe you have a hand that plays ok from behind and which you can still fold to a river bet without thinking that you played it like a fool.

I'm wide open to other suggestions.

<font color=" white">results: MP had 8c7c</font>

[GtrHtr]

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I'm wide open to other suggestions.

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hero shoulda folded pf.

I'll comment more later, but that was my initial thought on the hand without reading everything in detail. I did read through it without much analysis and determined you are much smarter than me once again.

[Isura]

microbet,

SB didn't play that hand that badly on the turn. I think check/call is the worst option. Check/folding is meh, and c/r can be fine with a good image. So I think c/r &gt; check/fold &gt; bet/fold &gt; check/call. Also, nobody will ever fold AJ in that spot, and I think leading turn is really really bad

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue"> Villain in this hand is 27/9/4.0 AF over 100 hands. He's down $1.
I'm running like 37/27. </font>

Ks Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)8d

SB: $32.65
BB: $66.80
UTG: $70.25
CO: $26.65
Hero (BTN): $100.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.20</font>, SB folds, BB calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.90</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $4.50</font>, Hero calls $2.60

<font color="blue"> I'd say I c-bet near 99% of the time on any flop. </font>

Turn: ($11.55) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $6.00</font>, Hero calls $6.00

<font color="blue"> What's my river line? How bad do you rate this call?
FWIW, I intended to fold most turn cards, but his turn bet size **felt** awkward, so I called.
</font>
River: ($23.55) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, hero checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

cbet the flop as you did, fold to the rr this on villain.

Turn is bad

As played get to showdown cheap as you can so yeah, check behind river.

villain is usually a bit of a station but may or may not flip on the aggression post flop depending. Its tough to tell, but I'd be surprised if he (based on his stats, randomly cr's the flop oop, although that seems to be the latest move on ftp blah blah). Villain also has a bit of set miner thrown in there with being a station. My bigger concern over sets here (although that is a concern) would be being outkicked and looking at two pair, just based on his stats, but all are equal possibilities in the bad column. If he is a retard, and he likely is he would shut down but not fold JT based on the river making a flush draw which you semi rep so I'd never semi bluff the river.

[ManChild]

[ QUOTE ]
microbet,

SB didn't play that hand that badly on the turn. I think check/call is the worst option. Check/folding is meh, and c/r can be fine with a good image. So I think c/r &gt; check/fold &gt; bet/fold &gt; check/call. Also, nobody will ever fold AJ in that spot, and I think leading turn is really really bad

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nobody ever folds AJ to a lead there? or nobody folds AJ there period?

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
microbet,

SB didn't play that hand that badly on the turn. I think check/call is the worst option. Check/folding is meh, and c/r can be fine with a good image. So I think c/r &gt; check/fold &gt; bet/fold &gt; check/call. Also, nobody will ever fold AJ in that spot, and I think leading turn is really really bad

[/ QUOTE ]

CRAI or craise less and do what on river? And if it's CRAI, where would you change my ranges/math?

[wuwei]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue"> Villain in this hand is 27/9/4.0 AF over 100 hands. He's down $1.
I'm running like 37/27. </font>

Ks Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)8d

SB: $32.65
BB: $66.80
UTG: $70.25
CO: $26.65
Hero (BTN): $100.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.20</font>, SB folds, BB calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.90</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $4.50</font>, Hero calls $2.60

<font color="blue"> I'd say I c-bet near 99% of the time on any flop. </font>

Turn: ($11.55) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $6.00</font>, Hero calls $6.00

<font color="blue"> What's my river line? How bad do you rate this call?
FWIW, I intended to fold most turn cards, but his turn bet size **felt** awkward, so I called.
</font>
River: ($23.55) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, hero checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

So much easier to think about hands when it's converted and I'm not playing 6 tables!

I can't fold tp to the small flop c/r on a rag board. On the turn, I'd usually fold it he bet ~9, but the half pot makes me stop and think as well. I don't mind calling or raising. I've been adding in a turn raise to around ~21, taking a free showdown on the river if called.

Also, a while back I broke down agg. factors street by street in my HUD and found it quite helpful in spots. This might be one of them...

[GtrHtr]

The only thing he beats here is a total bluff, like AQ or AK or a semi bluff by an underpair.

Also good point on putting af by street on the hud.