STTF SNG->cash thread

[Jbrochu]

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Is this a good spot to try to get a T to fold?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.15/$0.30 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $61.15
SB: $41.35
BB: $29.15
Hero (UTG): $56.70
CO: $82.70

Pre-Flop: 8 8 dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.05</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.25) K T 7 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($2.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1</font>, Hero calls $1

River: ($4.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>

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Hate to stir up a hornets nest here, but my curiosity is not satisfied and I can't seem to set up the math problem myself so I'm hoping one of you guru's will help.

Let's assume Cha's instinct is that he's behind 60% of the time so it's worth $1.70 to check behind. (.4 * $4.25)

How do I set up the math to figure out how often villain has to fold to Cha's $3.50 bet assuming villain actually is ahead 60% of the time, and of course villain never calls with a losing hand?

[DevinLake]

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DevinLake...I datamine quite a lot. Is there a stat in PO's HUD that can determine one as bad preflop player who can fold post flop (or say combo-stats)?

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High VPIP with low PFR and high Folds to Continuation Bet. (or low Calls Continuation Bet)

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Those stats dont exist in PO [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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That sucks. Cause they're the stats I use.

[Jbrochu]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB ($23.60)
BB ($39.05)
UTG ($11.25)
MP ($25)
CO ($27.80)
jb ($27.75)

Preflop: jb is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">jb raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.10) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, jb checks.

Turn: ($2.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $1</font>, jb calls $1.

River: ($4.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, jb...?

Villain is 22/16/11 over 76 and seems tricky


Not sure it's correct, but here's my thinking:

I check behind on the flop because it hits a lot of calling hands plus villain is aggressive and tricky and I don't want to have to fold to a c/r with two overs and a gutshot.

The turn card is scary but there is a decent chance I have the best hand and his bet is small. I think raising has little value so I just call.

I was expecting to be forced to a decision on the river and am surprised he just checks. Would you now normally bet for value here?

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

I think a c-bet is standard on the flop, after all you showed aggression pf, you have the button and there is a flush draw...

The turn hit you, and another heart makes your hand crap, so raise. His 1/2 pot bet looks like a where do I stand bet.

Bet the river small (1/2 pot), he has played this hand so weakly I am pretty sure you have him beat.

[microbet]

jb,

That's a checkable flop imho. Not one you have to check being HU, but it hits a lot and he's very aggro and could be looking to CR and you would be in a spot where you are either a little ahead or pretty far behind.

Turn is pretty clearly good.

I would bet the river. He calls with a lot of worse hands and doesn't check the river with a lot of better ones.

[microbet]

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The turn hit you, and another heart makes your hand crap, so raise. His 1/2 pot bet looks like a where do I stand bet.

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Dr J.,

Board is already nasty. I like to protect hands as much as or more than the next guy, but I don't worry about it nearly as much on the turn. Dude's postflop aggression is 11. He's likely to 3 bet any kind of combo draw and then what do you do? You're definitely over-repping your hand if you raise the turn. Maybe that would put you in a spot to bluff something like 2 pair off on the river, but I think looking for value from worse hands is a better line here.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

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The turn hit you, and another heart makes your hand crap, so raise. His 1/2 pot bet looks like a where do I stand bet.

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Dr J.,

Board is already nasty. I like to protect hands as much as or more than the next guy, but I don't worry about it nearly as much on the turn. Dude's postflop aggression is 11. He's likely to 3 bet any kind of combo draw and then what do you do? You're definitely over-repping your hand if you raise the turn. Maybe that would put you in a spot to bluff something like 2 pair off on the river, but I think looking for value from worse hands is a better line here.

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Thanks Microbet, this may be a spot where I tend to build a big pot with a small hand and I should be keeping it small, but if a low heart comes on river I find myself calling a reasonable bet and often losing.

[wuwei]

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How do I set up the math to figure out how often villain has to fold to Cha's $3.50 bet assuming villain actually is ahead 60% of the time, and of course villain never calls with a losing hand?

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expectation of a bet = (times he folds * pot we win) - (times he calls * how much we bet and lose)

E(bet) = (Fw * 4.25) - (Cw * 3.50) = 0 (for breakeven point)

Fw = % villain folds winning hand
Cw = % villain calls winning hand

Cw + Fw = 1

[GtrHtr]

Karp,

Hand #1 I'd usually fold pf based on sb's stack and the limper. But I'd consider raising it on the button (I think you are CO on the hand).

Postflop I'd slowwwww down on a paired board, look for an opportunity to value bet later if the hand slows down with you but I'd def call the turn minraise - even tho I f'ing hate minraisers. Play the river accordingly but I wouldn't be killing myself to get allin.

[K䲰䮥n]

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Karp,

Hand #1 I'd usually fold pf based on sb's stack and the limper. But I'd consider raising it on the button (I think you are CO on the hand).

Postflop I'd slowwwww down on a paired board, look for an opportunity to value bet later if the hand slows down with you but I'd def call the turn minraise - even tho I f'ing hate minraisers. Play the river accordingly but I wouldn't be killing myself to get allin.

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One thing I dont understand. Villain is far more likely to have trips than a FH. Wouldnt I need to protect my flush by 3betting?