line check with gut shot turned 2nd pair on river

[erc007]

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ok. 1.if he does have an ace im going to score a decent pot if i 4 out it.

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You're odds of hitting your gutshot are about 5.5 to 1 if played til river. You're calling 200, pot=500, so you're getting 2.5 to 1 from the pot. In order for this call to be EV+, u have to win at least another 600 to break-even. This might be hard to do if villain doesn't have an ace, or a 3rd diamond comes on the turn or river. The fact that the flop has 2 diamonds means that the Qd might not be good, and even if it is, it will kill the action when it hits. This decreases your already shaky implied odds.


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2.he may not have the ace. i may have 10 outs and bluff possibilities. on the turn i knew he was weak. i really should have raised but i wimped out.

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Since he lead so weak on the turn, his likely holdings are now a FD or 2nd pair. You can be pretty sure that your outs are not all clean.


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3. the river is sheer value bet.i figured he would not call much and also he can't really raise without a straight

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What hands can he call u with that u beat? The only benefit to leading here is it may look like a busted draw.

[usha]

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ok. 1.if he does have an ace im going to score a decent pot if i 4 out it.

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You're odds of hitting your gutshot are about 5.5 to 1 if played til river. You're calling 200, pot=500, so you're getting 2.5 to 1 from the pot. In order for this call to be EV+, u have to win at least another 600 to break-even. This might be hard to do if villain doesn't have an ace, or a 3rd diamond comes on the turn or river. The fact that the flop has 2 diamonds means that the Qd might not be good, and even if it is, it will kill the action when it hits. This decreases your already shaky implied odds.


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With your stack size, I like a flop call.
I don't think villain must have an A for this to be +EV. If he doesn't have an A (Some kind of weak J or FD) and we hit our draw, we are fine. If we don't hit, but villain shows weakness on turn, we can try and take the pot down. But if we don't hit, and villain makes a strong bet on turn, we should def fold.

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2.he may not have the ace. i may have 10 outs and bluff possibilities. on the turn i knew he was weak. i really should have raised but i wimped out.

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Since he lead so weak on the turn, his likely holdings are now a FD or 2nd pair. You can be pretty sure that your outs are not all clean.


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I agree, he probably has JT+ or FD, so I like a reraise here. Repop to 900 is good, and has a lot of FE.

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3. the river is sheer value bet.i figured he would not call much and also he can't really raise without a straight

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What hands can he call u with that u beat? The only benefit to leading here is it may look like a busted draw.

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Agree. As played you should def check/call. As you are getting value from busted FD or weak J, like JQ or JT. If villain leads weak again, I think a value reraise is fine also.

[BarryLyndon]

I guess you and I play a different kind of game, Ham, because I try to avoid spots like this. He could have a weak A, a flush draw, a straight draw, and I'm OOP, so I don't like trying to FPS here. It's going to be hard to represent hands here because so many turn cards could give villain a piece and he has position. Say a K hits on the turn - oh well, now you can lead, but you may get called, or you can C/R, but that could wind up pimp smacking you, and so forth. Not to mention that when the K hits, the river card becomes scary OOP even if you are ahead.

Ham - in tournaments, I do most of my bluff work from LP and the blinds, as I suspect most players do. But I try to do them repping lower straights and flushes, not loaded boards with overs.

Barry

[registrar]

Flop is fine. I generally raise when people make these twatty bets and I don't actually have a hand. River is a definite check call as played.