25/50 live, 350bbs deep, I have a set, now facing huge river CR

[Ellsworth T]

DLP here is why I think it was not as bad of a call as you believe but why you can definietly fold.

"flop came AQ4, checked around, I bet the turn which was a blank, and I bet the river which was a 2, and he instapushed . I folded. He didn't show, but he claimed: "he flopped it."

Now he obviously has shown the ability to either A) slowplay a big flopped hand, B) c/r river allin bluff (or essentially bluff i.e- betting two pair hands on river).

In our hand I agree I do not think it is an easy call. I play live mostly and this is a very strong tell, but like he said when you called river he didn't know you were that strong, and judging from his prior play I hardly doubt he even had an idea that you held trips. Therefore, his hand range for c/r river could include flopped sets, rivered two pair and of course QT and 75. Given his speech, I would favor his straight hands slightly more in my analysis but not to the exacting certainty that you have placed on it given the fact that he is capable IMO of holding weaker sets and two pair hands. You have to call 11.5k to win ~24k or win 33% of the time. So is he really bluffing or overvaluing sets or two pair hands 33% of the time?? I think it is awfully close, but only because he checked the river AND because your river bet also looked weak and though he did give that speech its entirely possible he missed some other draw and puts you on a weak hand yourself.

The more I think about this hand the closer I am to calling actually.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
given the fact that he is capable IMO of holding weaker sets and two pair hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

He never check/reluctantly calls a jack on the flop, so what 2 pair hands?

[ArmenH]

FLORIDA MIKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He's associated with the Mob. He dumped over 5k to me playing 5/10nl at foxwoods, lol. However, when he has a huge hand his tells are obvious and usually when a donk goes "TIME TO GO HOME!" and throws all their chips in the pot it's the nuts or the 2nd nuts, EVERYTIME. My buddy fell into the same trap against the same guy, he pulled the same line after flopping a straight on a 975 rainbow flop. My buddy ended up stacking off with top set. eh

[ahnuld]

Tru,e something everyone forgot was that river CR bluffs are a pretty advanced play, one which most donks dont have in their arsenal. They either triple barrel, or lead donk-out. Makes this one a bit more of a fold. If I didnt have live reads its a call though.

[duck_butter]

[ QUOTE ]
i instacall all in and i wish i had the bankroll to sit at these tables cuz i could run these fools.

[/ QUOTE ]

you would have run yourself into a 17.5K hole