$27 - AQ 999 board

mattiesmat · #1 11-02-2007, 05:13 PM

Give up on the flop?
What about calling?
If we call, what do we hope for and how do we play on turn?
Stats *26/6(edited) so far.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) by Hand Converter CG

Hero (t2960)
SB (t4900)
BB (t3860)
UTG (t1780)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t400, SB calls t325, 1 fold.

Flop: (t950) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t300, Hero ??

vers · #2 11-02-2007, 05:15 PM

I call flop and hope to freeze villain. Hope for a FH on turn, if not and opponent fires again you can fold.

JSmith2007 · #3 11-02-2007, 05:17 PM

Better yet, what will the SB be calling with here? I doubt he has a 9 here. Given the stack sizes, I'm shoving all in here and accepting a fold or a double up call here. I don't think you're behind here alot, 22-88 are possible, but 6 outs if he wants to gamble with 22-88 isn't so bad.

mattiesmat · #4 11-02-2007, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Better yet, what will the SB be calling with here? I doubt he has a 9 here. Given the stack sizes, I'm shoving all in here and accepting a fold or a double up call here. I don't think you're behind here alot, 22-88 are possible, but 6 outs if he wants to gamble with 22-88 isn't so bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he will fold some of those hands?

vers · #5 11-02-2007, 05:19 PM

Jsmith, I don't like the play here since SB has a ton of chips and will be calling shoves looser. Also since there's a shorty too the play has less merit.

JSmith2007 · #6 11-02-2007, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Better yet, what will the SB be calling with here? I doubt he has a 9 here. Given the stack sizes, I'm shoving all in here and accepting a fold or a double up call here. I don't think you're behind here alot, 22-88 are possible, but 6 outs if he wants to gamble with 22-88 isn't so bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he will fold some of those hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he may fold 22-66, but probably not 77-88, maybe give him 66 too. His stats show him as a pretty decent/above average player.

vers - What do you think the SB can have that beats hero right now? I'm having a hard time thinking a hand the SB could have that has him completely drawing dead or out other than a 9 which I don't think he has. He's going to call Ace rag often enough here to make this +EV.

vers · #7 11-02-2007, 05:29 PM

sb can have 22-88, anything else re-raise pre. Maybe the random 9 but I really don't think he donk bets w/ quads. I really don't like raising donk bets w/ air (despite it being ace hi). If you flat and he's on air, I don't see opponents double barrelling here often. I would try to keep the pot as small as possible.

JSmith2007 · #8 11-02-2007, 05:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
sb can have 22-88, anything else re-raise pre. Maybe the random 9 but I really don't think he donk bets w/ quads. I really don't like raising donk bets w/ air (despite it being ace hi). If you flat and he's on air, I don't see opponents double barrelling here often. I would try to keep the pot as small as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has air, why would we want to keep the pot as small as possible?! Air means we have him beat and want to get the maximum value out of this hand. 22-88 is possible yes, but as I explained 6 outs isn't all that bad. I don't think this is a decision of flat calling because giving him another card to try and make a better hand or a boat is just silly here (again assuming he has some crap like K/A hi and not 22-88/quads) and -EV.

If you're playing tight and want a 3rd place finish, sure, go ahead and fold here, but if you're going for a win or a shot at it, shove.

vers · #9 11-02-2007, 05:36 PM

It's a fair bit ahead(he's drawing to 3-6 outs)/fair bit behind (hero is drawing to 6 outs or less) IMO, hence keeping the pot small is good.