Lead, drawing behind on the turn?

[Bona]

I have only been at this table for 15 hands or so. The players are all loose preflop but less so post flop and none are really aggressive. I have no reason to doubt I will get at least 2 calls on my turn bet and I expect if I had checked someone would have bet it. I am willing to call a raise of course. Is leading here spew?


PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, MP calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (17 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Is leading here spew?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. You don't want to get raised and two calls isn't enough to make this a value play because of the chances that button is holding some of your supposed outs.

[tyler_cracker]

even assuming you want to raise for value, why would you donk? really bad. now if you want to c/r the turn if everyone calls, then we could talk.

if your donk gets raised here, you're probably not in very good shape anyway.

[OziBattler]

yep. spewy for reasons already covered. even though you have a monster draw your hand is just K high. just check and see what happens.

it is possible (but LDO not that likely given preflop action) the paired board with cards in the playzone that you could be drawing to 2 outs. your K and Q outs are probably pretty worthless.

[kav]

no reason to lead here.

what's the argument for c/r after everyone called?

[Bona]

Tyler brought that up and as he qualified it, "if everyone calls" we would be getting good odds on our draw. I think he's right. It's basically the same reason I was betting except with the c/r we would be assured of the drawing odds where betting out we have no such assurance. Arguably ~15 outs of 45 cards so I hit 0ne in 3 but am only putting in 1 in 4

[neurotiq]

I don't like the donk. You have a big draw, but you haven't hit yet and there's only one card left to come...

[arch_angel]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the donk. You have a big draw, but you haven't hit yet and there's only one card left to come...

[/ QUOTE ]
The issue isn't that he hasn't hit or that there's one card left. If all his outs are good (which they might be if no one raises) then paying 1 to 4 when your draw is 1 to 3 to come on one card is positive EV and betting &gt; checking through. The problem is a raise behind changes the numbers and the odds might not be +EV anymore. If op was assured all 3 others would call no matter what and knew he was 1-3 to make his draw and win on the next card then op should put as much money in as possible on the turn. However, the possibility of being raised and having 2 folds or something makes donking more likely to be -EV than ck/calling.

[Bulletproof Monk]

not so much spew as just pointless bad play. why are you betting?

[Sushiglutton]

I don't like it so much. It can't be for value and you have almost no chance to pick up the pot. Sometimes MP will raise which would be bad.