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#1
10-13-2007, 05:06 PM
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Nut FD and OC\'s, raise or call?
Posted an artificial hand about donk defending earlier. This one is real. Pot is now bigger and we have more outs and more opps. Raise or call?
Donker is 66.7/13.3/1.2 after 15 hands. The other two seems Taggy. PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP calls, CO calls. Flop: (8.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> BB checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="purple"> [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Hero [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]</font> 
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#2
10-13-2007, 05:08 PM
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Re: Nut FD and OC\'s, raise or call?
I'm going to raise this flop. Alot of outs, and I'm not too sure the CO has the flush, increasing outs even more. Raise the flop, BB/MP should fold. See the turn card and go from there.
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#5
10-13-2007, 07:51 PM
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Re: Nut FD and OC\'s, raise or call?
why is it not even a consideration for overcalls? what makes the raise, which is assumed to narrow the field so much better than going for overcalls? this is probably very unimaginitve and overly nitty, but if we raise it's to discourage callers and hopefully get it heads up so spiking a pair will win right? while going for overcalls means we're pretty much only interested in the pot for the flush possibilities. What's the likely hood of a 4th club coming in by the river, and how often will spiking a pair be good if we raise to isolate? does the added value of winning with tptk mean we should be trying to narrow the field or is the raise to protect equity or something that i'm not seeing, cuz i think going for overcalls to bloat the pot could at least be viable.
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#6
10-13-2007, 10:26 PM
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Re: Nut FD and OC\'s, raise or call?
I like a raise here. The two tags arent going to stay in without some reasonable chance of taking this pot down, and it might keep them from staying in and taking it down with a turn or river two pair. Also, if CO re-raises we can safely assume he has a set or weaker flush draw, and getting 11-1 we can profitable peel for turn.
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#7
10-13-2007, 11:01 PM
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Re: Nut FD and OC\'s, raise or call?
[ QUOTE ]
why is it not even a consideration for overcalls? what makes the raise, which is assumed to narrow the field so much better than going for overcalls? this is probably very unimaginitve and overly nitty, but if we raise it's to discourage callers and hopefully get it heads up so spiking a pair will win right? while going for overcalls means we're pretty much only interested in the pot for the flush possibilities. What's the likely hood of a 4th club coming in by the river, and how often will spiking a pair be good if we raise to isolate? does the added value of winning with tptk mean we should be trying to narrow the field or is the raise to protect equity or something that i'm not seeing, cuz i think going for overcalls to bloat the pot could at least be viable. [/ QUOTE ] If you raise, basically only good things can happen. You can isolate and be heads up with a huge draw and a big pot and increase your chances of winning, or you can get coldcalled and be 3-4 handed with a huge draw, a slightly smaller chance of winning, but an even bigger pot. Your implied odds are basically unchanged by your flop play, so you should be focusing on the present street.
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#9
10-14-2007, 02:14 AM
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Re: Nut FD and OC\'s, raise or call?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] why is it not even a consideration for overcalls? what makes the raise, which is assumed to narrow the field so much better than going for overcalls? this is probably very unimaginitve and overly nitty, but if we raise it's to discourage callers and hopefully get it heads up so spiking a pair will win right? while going for overcalls means we're pretty much only interested in the pot for the flush possibilities. What's the likely hood of a 4th club coming in by the river, and how often will spiking a pair be good if we raise to isolate? does the added value of winning with tptk mean we should be trying to narrow the field or is the raise to protect equity or something that i'm not seeing, cuz i think going for overcalls to bloat the pot could at least be viable. [/ QUOTE ] If you raise, basically only good things can happen. You can isolate and be heads up with a huge draw and a big pot and increase your chances of winning, or you can get coldcalled and be 3-4 handed with a huge draw, a slightly smaller chance of winning, but an even bigger pot. Your implied odds are basically unchanged by your flop play, so you should be focusing on the present street. [/ QUOTE ] While I do see your point, how often are you getting cold called here? If you assign ranges for how often you raise and get two folds, raise and get a cold call, or call and get two calls behind, or call and get a fold and a call, does raising really get more in the pot on the flop? I guess on a monotone flop most hands will fold so you won't get more than one overcall often enough to make it likely that overcalls put the most money in the pot, but I still would like to know if overcalls should be ruled out. Yes, raising is good, I agree, but couldn't overcalls in a similar situation be an option to mix up your game, like 70/30 for percent how often? The logic being that with three players your flush draw is probably about 30% or more to win the hand on the river, so all money going in you are close to making or already making profit on regardless of pot size, while HU you probably aren't over 50% to win by the river, so part of each bet you make is being donated. Am I severely overestimating the villains possible holdings range here, or is the argument that you can't just call ever because of the size of the pot or something?
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