AQ, turn plan in 3bet pot with top pair (NL50)

CalledDownLight · #1 09-15-2007, 07:43 PM

Villian is mediocre and a little loose.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($11.75)
MP2 ($11.25)
MP3 ($46.45)
CO ($168.55)
Button ($9.25)
SB ($49.50)
Hero ($56.45)
UTG ($11.55)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP3 raises to $2, 3 folds, Hero raises to $7, MP1 folds, MP3 calls $5.

Flop: ($14.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $9.5, MP3 calls $9.50.

Turn: ($33.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ???

oakrdrzfan · #2 09-15-2007, 07:54 PM

What is his 3 bet calling range? That would help. Would he do it with AJ or worse? Suited Clubs like KQs in his range? How about his fold to cbet stats?

Your SPR is in the commitment range at about 2.5, but it is a RR pot so that moves it down. I still think it is in the range though. That doesnt mean we have to get AI though.

If villain would bet worse hands, that he might fold if you lead the turn then I would hand him the rope. I would be committed at this point.

CalledDownLight · #3 09-15-2007, 08:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What is his 3 bet calling range? That would help. Would he do it with AJ or worse? Suited Clubs like KQs in his range? How about his fold to cbet stats?

Your SPR is in the commitment range at about 2.5, but it is a RR pot so that moves it down. I still think it is in the range though. That doesnt mean we have to get AI though.

If villain would bet worse hands, that he might fold if you lead the turn then I would hand him the rope. I would be committed at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't seen him get 3bet ever. I have like 25 total hands on him so cbet stats and everything else are meaningless. I'm not thinking of folding the turn fwiw, was mainly wondering about lead vs. crai vs. c/c. I'm sure he can call with worse aces and all kinds of stuff since he's playing NL50, not multitabling (to my knowledge, I was on 12 and he wasn't anywhere else), and definitely not a regular.

Given that c/f isn't an option what is your plan?

oakrdrzfan · #4 09-15-2007, 08:10 PM

You only have a pot size stack left. I believe you fold out his weaker hands that you beat if you push now. I CRAI. There are other lines as well obviously.

If he cks behind, value bet the river.

crunny · #5 09-15-2007, 09:31 PM

I kind of like a small lead on the turn. That way you can get some extra value from underpairs while still having a good chance of stacking him on turn or river when he has AJ.

A c/r could work, but it might be difficult to gt his stack on river if/when he checks behind with AJ

QTip · #6 09-15-2007, 09:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You only have a pot size stack left. I believe you fold out his weaker hands that you beat if you push now. I CRAI. There are other lines as well obviously.

If he cks behind, value bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this would be a good line if we knew he was aggressive.

Basically, I'm willing to get the money in here, and if I'm beat, I'm beat. I'd like to get the majority in right now before a club comes and he folds the river(also charge him if he has clubs). So, I think I make a 1/2 pot bet or so, and drop the rest in on any river.

justscott · #7 09-15-2007, 09:40 PM

c/r folds out all that you want to bring along, I lead.

crunny · #8 09-15-2007, 09:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
c/r folds out all that you want to bring along, I lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think villain is folding once he bets the turn. Unless he minbets or something.

Johnes Benjamin · #9 09-15-2007, 09:48 PM

Given we are committing to this hand I like lead 1/2 pot. If he has an A with less than Q kicker it is pretty likely he'll check behind

Am I wrong to think calling a strong 3bet with AJ is unlikely from a NL50 player who so far has appeared "a little loose?"
Am I giving people too much credit?

justscott · #10 09-15-2007, 09:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given we are committing to this hand I like lead 1/2 pot. If he has an A with less than Q kicker it is pretty likely he'll check behind

Am I wrong to think calling a strong 3bet with AJ is unlikely from a NL50 player who so far has appeared "a little loose?"
Am I giving people too much credit?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am leaning your way, KK,QQ probably reraise. This leaves AK and mid pairs that cant figure out set odds.