33 in CO 14xBB

[Luxoris]

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1) 33 face-up is very exploitable. It is even exploitable from the button instead of the CO. Per SnG on the button its -EV against calling range of 33+,AT+ (First range I tried)

2) Not exposed it would be very marginally (.3%) +EV against a range of like 77+,AQ+

3) But this doesn't take into account a deck slightly more rich in aces after 6 folds,

4) Most importantly if every late position raise slightly reduces your future fold equity - can it be worth a fraction of 1% equity on this hand ?

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My figures show the push is more than slightly cEV+. You may be using software that calculates $EV in SNGs, where the premium is on not busting out.

If there are more aces or high cards in the deck that is to your advantage. You don't mind being called by AK/AQ or whatever.

Pushed face up, you get called by 44+, which each player gets 5% of the time, so about 14% for 3 players. You are 19% against that range. Your average loss is 1250 if called.
225 * .86 - 1250 * .14 = +18 chips, so it is cEV+ pushed face up.

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Off the top of my head this seems way off. You get called by far more than 44+ face up, and a ton of the 18 chips is generated from the folds.

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Yeh, you are right. Face up you get called by a bunch of suited connectors and high cards hands from the BB.

However, in reality, you get called by AKo, AQo and similar hands, and that is about as good in cEV as getting a fold.

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Youre also ignoring the dead money in the pot and the odds the blinds get. Ignoring multiple callers and just looking at the average odds the 3 remaining hands are getting only .465 equity is needed to call. That means that any suited or non-suited 3 gapper or better is +EV plus the overpairs, which is nearly 50% of all hands. Youve only got 12.5% chance of a walk, and against that range you are a 52:48 dog. 225*.125 - .875*(.52*2050-.48*2275) = +5.

It gets even worse when you consider multiple callers. The +5 occurs about .375, you also face 2 callers .375 and your equity drops to .3 for almost twice as much money.

.3*4325-.7*2050=-137 and * .375 = -51 and for 3 callers
.24*6075-.76*2050=-100 and * .125 = -12

This seems way to negative to me in total (~-60) so I must be doing something wrong, but I think face up you are defintiely a big loser pushing.